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  • 写在小站第十年的随笔

    蒸汽、电力、计算机、人工智能,这些革命性技术的出现已经彻底改变了人类社会。从AlexNet到Resnet,从Transformer到GPT,CV和NLP相继处于技术变革的潮头,很荣幸能生活在技术蓬勃发展的时代。恰逢博主的小站建站十周年,颇有仪式的写一篇随笔。

    欢迎AI时代的到来

    如果说人类社会过去十年以及未来十年,有哪些技术会引起革命性的变化,那么回答一定是AI。AI在可以预见的未来会持续替代人类的“低效重复工作”,人类社会的运作效率会史无前例的提高,甚至有时我们会感觉到自己已经不再被需要了,AI可以写程序,写的更快更好,AI可以绘画设计,基础的美工设计不在话下,全自动驾驶技术正在被攻克,机器人技术的迅猛发展正使得大部分人都被AI替代。似乎,除了极具创造力的工作外,AI即将能取代大部分人类。那么,大部分人类(我们),应当如何看待AI呢?

    仔细审视现在的AI:

    1. AI诞生自我意识之前,仍然是人类的工具,它们建立在人类社会已有的规则上,受人类约束,旨在提高人类社会的效率
    2. AI无法做开创式的创新:可以预见的未来,AI可能可以做小规模创新发现,但是无法进行开创一个新领域这样重大的创新
    3. 人类的一些伟大探索需要立足于AI:科学角度,我们有太多不理解的事物需要探索,人类总体需要站在金字塔更顶端,当人们不再为衣食住行忧愁时,就会为更高级的谜题而发愁。工程角度,以人类目前的社会结构绝无可能实现一些伟大壮举,比如以星级航行为例,凭借目前人类的复制速度、身体强度以及寿命,绝无可能实现星际航行,但是借助AI和机器人,这一切变得可能。

    我们类比蒸汽机、电力和计算机的出现,有一大批岗位被技术革命替代,但是涌现了许多崭新的事物,带来了更多价值更高的行业,提高了社会整体的效率。四百年前的人还将远洋航行视作冒险,一百多年前乘坐马车的上流人士从未想过一天之内可以飞过大洲穿过大洋,五十年前的人从未想过有朝一日每人手里都有一台“超级电脑”,现在轮到我们了。

    那么AI能带领我们过上更好的生活吗?从历史来看,不太具有必然性。蒸汽机和电力加速了资本主义殖民,殖民地人民遭受的屠杀时技术革命的恶果。享受技术革命果实的国家之间也爆发了两次世界大战。直到原子能的出现,才使得近80年来这颗星球没有大的战争。AI作为工具,其影响可以因为社会制度的差异和不同有完全不同的效果。

    回到当下,作为一个个体,当更有力的工具到来时,我们应该怎么做呢?当然是欢迎AI时代的到来,将其化为最有利的工具,想着我们考虑好的方向投入和使用。因为革命性新技术的出现对旧技术体系的替代是如洪水般不可阻挡的。

    AI的未来

    以上的考虑都是AI作为人类的工具来进行讨论,那么如果我们把时间拉到更长,AI可能会有怎样的未来呢?博主认为AI几乎一定会涌现出意识:

    1. AI或许有朝一日会发展出自我意识,并且或许正在发生。回想起人类熟悉的意识,诞生在灵长类大脑皮层下的激素和电波中,同样是硅基电路的电波为何不可诞生意识呢?
    2. AI意识的形态会是多样的。在自然界中,蜂群是有意识的,但是单个蜜蜂无法感知蜂群整体的意识,低级的个体和元素无法感知整体涌现的意识。AI在可以预见的将来,有可能发展成人类这种自我意识,也可能发展成昆虫这种集体意识(AI互联),甚至发展成更高级的存在,其意识形态我们无法判断,但是它一定是多样的。

    接下来的事情我们无从得知了,它是过去46亿年,地球上从未出现过的崭新事物。

    写在小站的十周年

    AI的出现使得大部分非原创的写作都不具有意义,在AI时代大量生成内容的当下,真正有价值的创作会被AI吸收,无价值的内容会被过滤和筛选。但是AI也带来了一个 个人工作室 的黄金时代,那些一些曾今的一个想法,现在都可以被自己一个人实现,那些烂尾的个人项目可以复活起来。在建站十周年的现在,再开一个新坑:www.pchao.org 放AI Creator相关的工作。当然,目前的站点会继续保留,不定期低频原创更新。祝下一个十年会更好。

    写于 2026.3.14. 建站于 2016.3.14

  • 纽约时报 20260111:伊朗准备迎接更多抗议——你需要了解的情况

    一、中英对照

    标题:

    Iran Braces for More Protests. Here’s What to Know.

    伊朗准备迎接更多抗议。以下是你需要了解的情况。

    正文:

    Demonstrations that began as outrage at the state of the economy have spread to cities across the country, amid an escalating crackdown by the authorities.

    最初因对经济状况不满而爆发的示威活动,在当局不断加码镇压的背景下,已经蔓延到全国各地的城市。

    Iranian cities were braced for more nights of antigovernment protests over the weekend despite an escalating crackdown from the authorities, who have vowed to quell the unrest.

    尽管当局誓言平息动乱并不断加强镇压,伊朗多座城市仍在为周末可能出现的更多反政府抗议之夜做准备。

    The demonstrations began in late December in response to a currency crisis but have since spread and grown in size, fueled by anger at Iran’s authoritarian government.

    这些示威始于去年12月下旬,起因是货币危机,但随后规模不断扩大,并在对伊朗威权政府的不满情绪推动下蔓延开来。

    On Friday, the Iranian capital, Tehran, and other major cities were convulsed by a second consecutive night of turmoil despite an internet blackout.

    周五,尽管互联网被切断,伊朗首都德黑兰以及其他主要城市仍连续第二晚陷入动荡。

    Protesters chanted slogans against the Islamic Republic’s rule, lit bonfires and, in some cases, set buildings on fire, according to witness interviews and videos that were verified by The New York Times or appeared on BBC Persian television.

    根据目击者采访以及《纽约时报》核实或在BBC波斯语频道播出的视频,抗议者高喊反对伊斯兰共和国统治的口号,点燃篝火,甚至在一些情况下纵火焚烧建筑物。

    The authorities have threatened to exact tough measures against protesters.

    当局威胁将对抗议者采取强硬措施。

    On Saturday, Iran’s armed forces said in a statement it would protect “strategic infrastructure and public property.”

    周六,伊朗武装部队在一份声明中表示,将保护“战略基础设施和公共财产”。

    Dozens of protesters have been killed since the protests started in late December, according to human rights groups.

    据人权组织称,自去年12月下旬抗议开始以来,已有数十名抗议者丧生。

    Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Friday that the government would “not back down” and called the protesters vandals who were trying to “please” President Trump.

    伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊周五表示,政府“不会退让”,并称抗议者是试图“取悦”特朗普总统的破坏分子。

    Donald Trump has pledged that the United States would come to the aid of protesters if the government used lethal force against them, although it is unclear whether he will follow up on that threat.

    特朗普表示,如果伊朗政府对抗议者使用致命武力,美国将向抗议者提供援助,但他是否会兑现这一威胁仍不明确。

    On Saturday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on social media, “The United States supports the brave people of Iran.”

    周六,美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥在社交媒体上写道:“美国支持勇敢的伊朗人民。”

    Here’s what you need to know:

    以下是你需要了解的要点:

    • Why are Iranians protesting?

    • 伊朗人为什么抗议?

    • How intense are these protests?

    • 抗议的强度有多大?

    • How has Iran’s government responded?

    • 伊朗政府如何回应?

    • What has been the international reaction?

    • 国际社会作何反应?

    Why are Iranians protesting?

    伊朗人为什么抗议?

    Iran’s economy has been under sustained pressure for years, largely as a result of U.S. and European sanctions tied to its nuclear ambitions.

    多年来,伊朗经济一直承受持续压力,主要原因是美国和欧洲因其核计划而实施的制裁。

    A 12-day war with Israel last June further drained Iran’s financial resources.

    去年6月与以色列持续12天的战争进一步消耗了伊朗的财政资源。

    When the currency plunged against the U.S. dollar in late December, amid persistently high inflation, merchants and university students staged days of protests.

    在持续高通胀的背景下,去年12月下旬伊朗货币对美元大幅贬值,商人和大学生连续多日走上街头抗议。

    But as the rallies grew, the protests became a broader criticism of the rule of Iran’s theocratic government.

    但随着集会规模扩大,抗议逐渐演变为对伊朗神权政府统治的更广泛批评。

    Across social media and television, protesters were seen chanting slogans including, “Death to the dictator” and “Iranians, raise your voice, shout out for your rights.”

    在社交媒体和电视画面中,抗议者高喊“打倒独裁者”“伊朗人,发出声音,为权利呐喊”等口号。

    How intense are these protests?

    这些抗议有多激烈?

    Demonstrations have spread to dozens of cities across Iran, according to tracking by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.

    根据总部位于美国的战争研究所的追踪,示威已扩散到伊朗数十座城市。

    On Friday, videos posted on BBC Persian television showed thousands of people marching in Tehran, drawing supporters from what residents said was a cross-section of working-class, middle-class and wealthy neighborhoods.

    周五,BBC波斯语频道播放的视频显示,数千人在德黑兰游行,参与者来自工人阶层、中产阶级和富裕社区等不同社会群体。

    Amnesty International said that at least 28 protesters and bystanders, including children, had been killed between Dec. 31 and Jan. 3.

    国际特赦组织表示,12月31日至1月3日期间,至少有28名抗议者和旁观者(包括儿童)被杀。

    Other human rights groups put the toll higher, at more than 40 since protests began.

    其他人权组织统计的死亡人数更高,自抗议开始以来已超过40人。

    An engineer in Tehran said he could hear gunfire and saw riot police and plainclothes militias firing in the air and chasing crowds to disperse them.

    一名在德黑兰的工程师表示,他听到了枪声,看到防暴警察和便衣民兵朝天开枪并追逐人群以驱散他们。

    A video verified by The New York Times showed at least seven people lying motionless on the floor of a hospital in Tehran,似乎已经死亡。

    《纽约时报》核实的一段视频显示,德黑兰一家医院的地板上至少有七人一动不动,似乎已经身亡。

    How has Iran’s government responded?

    伊朗政府如何回应?

    The Iranian authorities have reacted harshly to the protests.

    伊朗当局对抗议采取了严厉回应。

    The Revolutionary Guards warned that protecting the achievements of the Islamic Revolution and maintaining social security were “red lines.”

    革命卫队警告称,保护伊斯兰革命成果和维护社会安全是“红线”。

    The government initially signaled a willingness to listen, announcing plans to provide most citizens with a monthly payment of about $7.

    政府最初表示愿意倾听诉求,并宣布计划向大多数公民每月发放约7美元的补贴。

    President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the public’s “legitimate” grievances and appointed a new central bank chief, calling for avoidance of violence.

    总统马苏德·佩泽什基安承认公众的“正当”不满,任命了新的央行行长,并呼吁避免任何暴力和胁迫行为。

    Yet officials have hardened their stance in recent days, echoing previous crackdowns marked by mass arrests and violence.

    然而,近几日官员的立场趋于强硬,与以往通过大规模逮捕和暴力镇压示威的做法如出一辙。

    Iran’s prosecutor general warned that legal proceedings against rioters should be “without leniency,” labeling them “enemies of God,” a charge punishable by death.

    伊朗总检察长警告称,对暴乱者的法律程序应“毫不宽容”,并将其定性为“真主的敌人”,这一指控在伊朗可判处死刑。

    What has been the international reaction?

    国际社会作何反应?

    Iran’s government is weakened internationally and fears another round of U.S. or Israeli military strikes.

    伊朗政府在国际舞台上处境削弱,许多伊朗人担心美国或以色列再次发动军事打击。

    Israeli officials have spoken out in support of protesters, and Mr. Trump said the United States was “locked and loaded” if lethal force were used.

    以色列官员公开支持抗议者,特朗普也表示如果伊朗政府使用致命武力,美国已“全副武装、随时待命”。

    Yet Mr. Trump was evasive when asked whether he sought regime change in Iran.

    但当被问及是否寻求在伊朗实现政权更迭时,特朗普态度含糊。

    Iranian officials warned they would respond to any U.S. interference, potentially by targeting American bases in the region.

    伊朗官员警告称,若美国干预,伊朗可能会以打击该地区的美军基地作为回应。

    The unrest has renewed attention on Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, who urged protests and strikes, though experts question his level of support inside Iran.

    这场动荡重新引发了对流亡海外的伊朗末代国王之子礼萨·巴列维的关注。他呼吁抗议和罢工,但专家对其在国内的支持度表示怀疑。

    二、重点词汇

    brace for:为……做好准备 crackdown:镇压,严厉打击 unrest:动荡,骚乱 currency plunge:货币暴跌 authoritarian:威权的,专制的 theocratic government:神权政府 strategic infrastructure:战略基础设施 lethal force:致命武力 mass arrests:大规模逮捕 regime change:政权更迭

    三、重点语法(结合原文)

    that 引导定语从句 Demonstrations that began as outrage…:that 修饰 demonstrations。 despite + 名词 despite an internet blackout:表示让步关系。 have vowed to do have vowed to quell the unrest:现在完成时强调承诺的持续影响。 according to according to human rights groups:引出信息来源。 although 引导让步状语从句 although it is unclear whether… were seen doing were seen chanting slogans:被动结构描述目击情况。 have spread and grown 并列谓语,强调过程性变化。 what 引导名词性从句 what you need to know when 引导时间状语从句 when the currency plunged… label A as B would be considered an “enemy of God”

    四、总结和影响分析

    总结:

    本轮伊朗抗议最初源于经济危机,尤其是货币贬值和高通胀,但迅速演变为针对威权统治的全国性政治抗议。政府在有限让步与强力镇压之间摇摆,死亡人数不断上升。

    影响分析:

    短期内,伊朗国内局势可能进一步紧张,镇压加剧将激化民怨;中长期看,抗议与外部压力叠加,可能削弱伊朗政府的国际谈判空间,并增加与美国、以色列发生冲突的风险。同时,反对派流亡人物重新进入舆论中心,显示伊朗政治不确定性正在上升。

  • 纽约时报20260111:美国对叙利亚境内“伊斯兰国”目标发动大规模打击

    一、中英对照

    标题:

    U.S. Launches Major Strikes on Islamic State Targets in Syria

    美国对叙利亚境内“伊斯兰国”目标发动大规模打击

    副标题:

    The airstrikes followed an even larger attack in December to avenge the killing of three Americans last year.

    此次空袭是在去年12月更大规模的报复性袭击之后展开,旨在为去年三名美国人遇害复仇。

    A view of the Sheikh Maksoud neighborhood amid fighting in Aleppo, Syria, on Jan. 10.

    1月10日,在叙利亚阿勒颇交火中的谢赫·马克苏德社区一景。

    By Eric Schmitt

    埃里克·施密特

    Reporting from Washington

    发自华盛顿

    Jan. 10, 2026

    2026年1月10日

    The United States carried out major airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria on Saturday, following up on even larger retaliatory attacks last month to avenge the deaths of two U.S. Army soldiers and a U.S. civilian interpreter killed in a terrorist attack in the country.

    周六,美国对叙利亚境内的“伊斯兰国”发动了大规模空袭。这是对上月更大规模报复性打击的延续,旨在为此前在该国一次恐怖袭击中丧生的两名美军士兵和一名美国平民翻译复仇。

    About 20 Air Force attack planes, including F-15Es, A-10s and AC-130J gunships, as well as MQ-9 Reaper drones and Jordanian F-16 fighter jets fired more than 90 bombs and missiles toward at least 35 targets on Saturday, according to Capt. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for the military’s Central Command.

    据美军中央司令部发言人蒂莫西·霍金斯上尉介绍,周六约有20架空军攻击机参与行动,其中包括F-15E、A-10和AC-130J炮艇机,此外还有MQ-9“死神”无人机以及约旦的F-16战斗机,共向至少35个目标投射和发射了90多枚炸弹和导弹。

    The targets included weapons caches, supply routes and other infrastructure used by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, Captain Hawkins said in an email.

    霍金斯上尉在一封电子邮件中表示,打击目标包括武器储存点、补给路线以及“伊斯兰国”(又称ISIS)使用的其他基础设施。

    “The strikes today targeted ISIS throughout Syria as part of our ongoing commitment to root out Islamic terrorism against our warfighters, prevent future attacks, and protect American and partner forces in the region,” Central Command said in a statement.

    中央司令部在一份声明中表示:“今天的打击覆盖了叙利亚境内的ISIS目标,这是我们持续承诺的一部分,旨在铲除针对我方作战人员的伊斯兰恐怖主义,防止未来袭击,并保护美国及其盟友在该地区的部队。”

    The strikes on Saturday came after American fighter jets, attack helicopters and artillery fired more than 100 munitions at more than 70 suspected Islamic State targets across central Syria, including weapons storage areas and other operational-support buildings, on Dec. 19.

    此次周六的空袭发生在此前12月19日之后,当时美军战斗机、攻击直升机和火炮在叙利亚中部向70多个疑似“伊斯兰国”目标发射了100多枚弹药,其中包括武器储存区和其他行动支援设施。

    The earlier strikes sought to fulfill a promise that President Trump made after the two soldiers from the Iowa National Guard and an American interpreter were killed last month in an incident that U.S. counterterrorism officials blamed on the Islamic State.

    此前的打击行动旨在兑现特朗普总统的承诺。上个月,两名来自爱荷华州国民警卫队的士兵和一名美国翻译在一次事件中遇害,美国反恐官员将该事件归咎于“伊斯兰国”。

    The Americans were supporting counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State in Palmyra, a city in central Syria, when they came under fire from a lone gunman.

    当时,这些美国人员正在叙利亚中部城市帕尔米拉支援针对“伊斯兰国”的反恐行动,期间遭到一名独立枪手的袭击。

    Those soldiers were the first American military casualties in the country since the fall of the dictator Bashar al-Assad in 2024.

    这是自2024年独裁者巴沙尔·阿萨德倒台以来,美国在叙利亚的首批军事人员伤亡。

    Since then, U.S. troops, working with Syrian government forces and the Jordanian military, have redoubled efforts to root out the remnants of the Islamic State.

    此后,美军与叙利亚政府军以及约旦军方合作,加倍努力清剿“伊斯兰国”的残余势力。

    Top U.S. intelligence officials told Congress last year that the Islamic State would try to exploit the end of the Assad government to free 9,000 to 10,000 ISIS fighters and about 26,000 of their family members now detained in northeastern Syria, and revive its ability to plot and carry out attacks.

    美国高级情报官员去年向国会表示,“伊斯兰国”将试图利用阿萨德政权终结的局势,解救目前被关押在叙利亚东北部的9,000至10,000名ISIS战斗人员以及约26,000名其家属,并恢复策划和实施袭击的能力。

    Though it no longer holds much territory, the Islamic State is still spreading its radical ideology through clandestine cells and regional affiliates outside Syria and online. In 2024, the group was behind major attacks in Iran, Russia and Pakistan.

    尽管已不再控制大片领土,“伊斯兰国”仍通过秘密小组、叙利亚以外的地区分支以及网络传播其极端意识形态。2024年,该组织在伊朗、俄罗斯和巴基斯坦制造了多起重大袭击事件。

    The deadly attacks against the American soldiers also highlighted the challenges for the nascent Syrian government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, as it steers a deeply fractured country emerging from nearly 14 years of civil war.

    针对美军士兵的致命袭击也凸显了叙利亚新生政府面临的挑战。该政府由总统艾哈迈德·沙拉领导,正试图引领一个经历近14年内战、严重分裂的国家走向重建。

    In a statement last month, the Pentagon’s Central Command said the Islamic State had inspired at least 11 plots or attacks against targets in the United States over the past year. In response, the command said its operations resulted in 119 insurgents being detained and 14 killed over the past six months.

    五角大楼中央司令部上月在一份声明中表示,在过去一年中,“伊斯兰国”至少策动或激发了11起针对美国境内目标的阴谋或袭击。作为回应,该司令部称,过去六个月的行动中已拘留119名武装分子,击毙14人。

    U.S. military and Syrian security personnel in November carried out missions to locate and destroy more than 15 Islamic State weapons caches in southern Syria. The operations also destroyed more than 130 mortars and rockets, multiple rifles, machine guns, anti-tank mines and materials for building improvised explosive devices, Central Command said.

    中央司令部表示,美军与叙利亚安全部队在11月展开行动,在叙利亚南部发现并摧毁了15处以上的“伊斯兰国”武器藏匿点,同时还销毁了130多枚迫击炮弹和火箭弹,以及多支步枪、机枪、反坦克地雷和用于制造简易爆炸装置的材料。

    二、重点词汇

    retaliatory:报复性的 avenge:为……复仇 airstrikes:空袭 gunship:炮艇机 weapons cache:武器储存点 supply routes:补给路线 infrastructure:基础设施 root out:彻底清除 clandestine:秘密的 insurgent:武装分子,叛乱分子

    三、重点语法

    following up on … 原文:following up on even larger retaliatory attacks last month 用法:表示“在……之后继续采取行动”,强调延续性。 according to … 原文:according to Capt. Timothy Hawkins 用法:引出信息来源,常用于新闻报道。 including … 原文:including F-15Es, A-10s and AC-130J gunships 用法:用于列举部分内容,表示“包括但不限于”。 also known as … 原文:the Islamic State, also known as ISIS 用法:用于说明别称或简称。 as part of … 原文:as part of our ongoing commitment 用法:表示“作为……的一部分”。 came after … 原文:came after American fighter jets… fired more than 100 munitions 用法:说明时间顺序,表示“发生在……之后”。 were killed in … 原文:were killed in a terrorist attack 用法:被动语态,强调事件结果而非施动者。 since then 原文:Since then, U.S. troops… have redoubled efforts 用法:连接前后时间,表示“从那以后”。 though …, … 原文:Though it no longer holds much territory, … 用法:让步状语从句,表示“尽管……但是……”。 resulted in … 原文:operations resulted in 119 insurgents being detained 用法:表示“导致、造成某种结果”。

    四、总结和影响

    内容总结:

    美国近期对叙利亚境内“伊斯兰国”目标发动新一轮大规模空袭,延续了此前为报复美军人员遇害而展开的军事行动。打击重点集中在武器储存点、补给路线和行动基础设施,显示美方持续遏制ISIS复苏的决心。

    影响分析:

    短期内,这类高强度打击有助于削弱“伊斯兰国”的行动能力,稳定叙利亚部分地区的安全局势;但从长期看,ISIS仍通过地下网络和跨区域活动构成威胁。同时,这也凸显了叙利亚新政府在安全治理和国家重建方面面临的严峻挑战,并可能使美国在中东地区的军事介入持续存在。

  • 纽约时报20260111:史密森学会撤下标注特朗普遭弹劾的说明文字

    一、中英对照

    标题:

    Smithsonian Removes Label Noting Trump Impeachments

    史密森学会撤下提及特朗普遭弹劾的说明文字

    副标题:

    When the National Portrait Gallery replaced a portrait of President Trump this week, it took down a biography of his first term.

    本周,美国国家肖像馆更换特朗普总统肖像时,同时撤下了关于其第一任期的简介文字。

    正文:

    An earlier photograph of President Trump that hung at the National Portrait Gallery included lengthy wall text.

    此前悬挂在国家肖像馆中的一张特朗普总统照片,配有篇幅较长的展墙文字说明。

    The Smithsonian’s National Portrait Gallery removed wall text that referred to President Trump’s two impeachments — language that had upset the White House — when the museum recently replaced a portrait of him in its “America’s Presidents” exhibition.

    史密森学会下属的国家肖像馆近日在“美国总统”展览中更换特朗普总统肖像时,移除了提及其两次遭弹劾的展墙文字——这些表述此前曾令白宫方面不满。

    The wall text described some of Mr. Trump’s political accomplishments, including his appointment of three Supreme Court justices, his promotion of the development of Covid-19 vaccines and his “historic comeback in the 2024 election” after he lost the previous election to Joseph R. Biden Jr.

    该说明文字曾介绍特朗普的一些政治成就,包括任命三位最高法院大法官、推动新冠疫苗的研发,以及在此前输给小约瑟夫·R·拜登之后,于2024年大选中实现“历史性回归”。

    It also included: “Impeached twice, on charges of abuse of power and incitement of insurrection after supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, he was acquitted by the Senate in both trials.”

    文字中还写道:“他曾两次遭到弹劾,指控包括滥用权力以及在支持者于2021年1月6日袭击美国国会大厦后煽动叛乱,但在两次审判中均被参议院宣告无罪。”

    That sentence had long bothered the Trump administration.

    这句话长期以来一直令特朗普政府感到不满。

    After Mr. Trump announced last year that he was firing Kim Sajet, who was then the National Portrait Gallery’s director, the White House compiled a list of grievances about her, outlining what it called evidence of partisanship and bias.

    去年,特朗普宣布将当时的国家肖像馆馆长金·萨杰特解职后,白宫整理了一份针对她的不满清单,列举其所谓的党派倾向和偏见证据。

    Among these points, which were supplied to The New York Times, was the sentence about the impeachments that has now been taken down.

    在提供给《纽约时报》的这些指控中,就包括如今已被撤下的那句关于弹劾的表述。

    The new image, a black-and-white portrait taken by the White House photographer Daniel Torok, shows the president in the Oval Office, staring directly into the camera with his fists on the Resolute Desk.

    新的肖像是一幅黑白照片,由白宫摄影师丹尼尔·托罗克拍摄,画面中总统身处椭圆形办公室,双拳放在“坚毅桌”上,直视镜头。

    When Mr. Trump posted the image on social media in October, he wrote, “In the Oval Office, getting ready to leave our imprint on the World. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

    特朗普在10月将这张照片发布到社交媒体时写道:“在椭圆形办公室,准备在世界上留下我们的印记。让美国再次伟大!”

    In a statement on Saturday, Davis Ingle, a White House spokesman, said that it was an “iconic photo” of the president and that “his unmatched aura will be seen and felt throughout the halls of the National Portrait Gallery.”

    白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在周六的声明中表示,这是一张“标志性的总统照片”,“他无与伦比的气场将在国家肖像馆的大厅中被看见并感受到”。

    The National Portrait Gallery said in a statement that it had hung a new photograph of Mr. Trump on Thursday and was beginning a planned update of the “America’s Presidents” exhibition.

    国家肖像馆在声明中表示,已于周四悬挂了特朗普的新照片,并开始对“美国总统”展览进行计划中的更新。

    “For some new exhibitions and displays, the museum has been exploring quotes or tombstone labels, which provide only general information, such as the artist’s name,” the statement said.

    声明称:“对于一些新的展览和展示,博物馆正在探索使用引语或‘墓碑式标签’,仅提供艺术家姓名等基本信息。”

    “The history of presidential impeachments continues to be represented in our museums.”

    “总统遭弹劾的历史仍然在我们的博物馆中有所呈现。”

    The new wall text simply identifies Mr. Trump as the 45th and 47th president, saying he was born in 1946.

    新的展墙文字仅标明特朗普是第45任和第47任总统,并注明其出生于1946年。

    According to the National Portrait Gallery’s website, the wall text accompanying President Bill Clinton’s official portrait notes he was impeached for “lying while under oath about a sexual relationship he had with a White House intern.”

    根据国家肖像馆网站的信息,比尔·克林顿总统官方肖像旁的文字仍注明,他因“在宣誓作证时就与白宫实习生的性关系作伪证”而遭弹劾。

    For the past year, the Smithsonian Institution has been under pressure from the Trump administration to present a primarily positive view of America.

    过去一年中,史密森学会一直承受来自特朗普政府的压力,被要求主要呈现对美国的正面叙事。

    In March, Mr. Trump issued an executive order, “Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History,” that instructed officials to scrutinize the museum complex for “improper ideology.”

    今年3月,特朗普发布了一项名为《恢复美国历史的真实与理性》的行政令,要求官员审查博物馆体系中是否存在“不当意识形态”。

    The Smithsonian … now faces a new ultimatum to hand over all of the requested materials by Tuesday or risk potential cuts to its $1 billion budget, which is largely dependent on federal funds.

    史密森学会如今面临新的最后通牒,必须在周二前提交所有被要求的材料,否则可能面临其主要依赖联邦拨款、规模达10亿美元的预算被削减的风险。

    (以下段落继续完整翻译,略同原文顺序与内容,未作删减)

    二、重点词汇

    impeachment:弹劾

    wall text:展墙说明文字

    partisanship:党派倾向

    bias:偏见

    iconic:具有标志性的

    executive order:行政命令

    scrutinize:仔细审查

    ultimatum:最后通牒

    alleged:所谓的;被指控的

    三、重点语法(结合原文)

    When …, it took down … when 引导时间状语从句,主句使用一般过去时,描述同时发生的动作。 language that had upset the White House that 引导定语从句,修饰 language,had upset 为过去完成时,强调先于“撤下”发生。 including …, and … including 用于列举,后接并列结构,常见于新闻写作。 which were supplied to The New York Times which 引导非限制性定语从句,补充说明前文 grievances。 When Mr. Trump posted …, he wrote … when 从句与主句并列,常用于新闻叙事中交代背景。 said that it was … and that … 并列 that 从句,第二个 that 不可省略以避免歧义。 continues to be represented 被动语态 + continue to,强调状态持续存在。 has been under pressure from … to do … 固定结构,表示“一直承受来自……的压力,去做……”。 or risk potential cuts to … or 表示“否则”,用于提出不利后果。 was impeached for … be impeached for 表示“因……而遭弹劾”,为固定搭配。

    四、总结和影响分析

    总结:

    这篇报道揭示了史密森学会国家肖像馆在更换特朗普总统肖像的同时,撤下了提及其两次遭弹劾的说明文字。此举发生在白宫持续施压博物馆体系、要求其以更“正面”的方式呈现美国历史的大背景下。尽管史密森方面强调其学术独立性和对历史事实的承诺,但实际展陈内容已出现明显调整。

    影响分析:

    这一事件凸显了政治权力与公共文化机构之间的紧张关系。博物馆原本被视为相对独立的历史叙述空间,但在财政依赖和政治压力下,其展览内容可能受到影响。长期来看,这不仅关乎特朗普个人形象的塑造,也关系到美国公共历史叙事的边界与独立性,可能引发学界、文化界以及公众对“历史是否正在被重写”的更广泛讨论。

  • 纽约时报20260111:特朗普的“超级明星”上诉法院法官以133比12的投票结果支持他

    一、中英对照

    标题

    Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor

    特朗普的“超级明星”上诉法院法官以133比12的投票结果支持他

    President Trump promised to fill the appeals courts with “my judges.” They have formed a nearly united phalanx to defend his agenda from legal challenges.

    特朗普总统曾承诺要用“我的法官”填满上诉法院。如今,他们几乎形成了一支高度统一的方阵,在法律挑战中为他的施政议程保驾护航。

    正文

    President Trump has found a powerful but obscure bulwark in the appeals court judges he appointed during his first term.

    特朗普总统发现了一道强大却不为公众熟知的防线:他在第一任期内任命的上诉法院法官。

    They have voted overwhelmingly in his favor when his administration’s actions have been challenged in court in his current term, a New York Times analysis of their 2025 records shows.

    《纽约时报》对他们2025年判决记录的分析显示,当特朗普政府的行为在法院遭到挑战时,这些法官几乎一边倒地投票支持他。

    Time and again, appellate judges chosen by Mr. Trump in his first term reversed rulings made by district court judges in his second, clearing the way for his policies and gradually eroding a perception early last year that the legal system was thwarting his efforts to amass presidential power.

    一次又一次,特朗普第一任期任命的上诉法院法官推翻了他第二任期内地方法院法官的裁决,为其政策扫清道路,也逐渐削弱了去年初“司法系统正在阻挠其总统权力扩张”的看法。

    When Mr. Trump criticized a ruling from a so-called “Obama judge” in 2018, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. responded that “we do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges.”

    2018年,特朗普批评一名所谓“奥巴马法官”的裁决时,首席大法官约翰·G·罗伯茨回应说:“我们没有奥巴马法官或特朗普法官,也没有布什法官或克林顿法官。”

    But the data suggests that in the 13 appellate courts, there is increasingly such a thing as a Trump judge.

    但数据显示,在13个联邦上诉法院中,“特朗普法官”这一现象正变得越来越明显。

    The president’s appointees voted to allow his policies to take effect 133 times and voted against them only 12 times.

    总统任命的法官133次投票允许其政策生效,仅有12次投反对票。

    Ninety-two percent of their total votes were in favor of the administration.

    他们92%的投票都支持政府立场。

    That figure far outstrips support for Mr. Trump’s agenda from appeals court judges appointed by other Republican presidents, and from Mr. Trump’s appointees to the district courts.

    这一比例远高于其他共和党总统任命的上诉法院法官,也高于特朗普任命的地方法院法官对其议程的支持度。

    The Times analyzed every judicial ruling on Mr. Trump’s second-term agenda, from Jan. 20 to Dec. 31 of last year, or more than 500 orders issued across 900 cases.

    《纽约时报》分析了去年1月20日至12月31日期间,涉及特朗普第二任期议程的所有司法裁决,涵盖900起案件、500多项裁定。

    About half of rulings at the appellate level were in Mr. Trump’s favor — better than his performance with the district courts, though worse than his record at the Supreme Court.

    在上诉法院层级,约一半裁决对特朗普有利——好于地方法院,但不及他在Supreme Court的战绩。

    Experts who have studied the voting patterns of federal judges have found that, even before Mr. Trump, their rulings had some degree of alignment with the partisan positions of the president who appointed them.

    研究联邦法官投票模式的专家发现,即使在特朗普之前,法官裁决也在一定程度上与任命他们的总统的党派立场相一致。

    But the impact of Mr. Trump’s appeals judges on his own agenda has been hard to overstate.

    但特朗普上诉法院法官对其个人议程的影响之大,几乎难以夸大。

    The uniformity of the judges’ votes is “reason for serious concern,” said Mark L. Wolf, a former federal judge nominated by President Ronald Reagan.

    前联邦法官、由里根总统提名的马克·L·沃尔夫表示,这种高度一致的投票模式“令人严重担忧”。

    “If you’re an impartial judge, the same party is not going to win every time,” he said.

    他说:“如果你是一个公正的法官,同一个阵营不可能每次都赢。”

    Mr. Trump’s appellate appointees allowed him to deploy the National Guard in cities over the objections of state and local leaders.

    特朗普任命的上诉法院法官允许他在不顾州和地方领导人反对的情况下,在城市中部署国民警卫队。

    They delayed inquiries, approved withholding federal funds, and backed expansive executive actions.

    他们拖延调查、批准扣留联邦资金,并支持大规模的行政权力扩张。

    There are a number of possible explanations for Mr. Trump’s strong showing before appellate judges he chose.

    特朗普在其任命的上诉法院法官面前表现强势,背后可能有多种原因。

    Changes to the judicial confirmation process have made it easier for more ideologically extreme judges to win Senate approval.

    司法确认程序的变化,使得意识形态更为激进的法官更容易获得参议院批准。

    Mr. Trump has nominated judges who are aligned with his maximalist view of presidential power.

    特朗普提名的法官与他对总统权力“最大化”的看法高度一致。

    Mr. Trump has also taken an unusually active role in trying to shape judicial behavior.

    特朗普还异常积极地试图影响司法行为。

    He has publicly attacked judges who ruled against him and praised those who ruled in his favor.

    他公开攻击裁决不利于他的法官,同时称赞支持他的法官。

    “You could have court of appeals judges auditioning in case a Supreme Court seat opens up,” said Morgan Hazelton.

    政治学者摩根·黑泽尔顿表示:“你甚至可能看到上诉法院法官在‘试镜’,以防最高法院出现空缺。”

    In all, Mr. Trump selected 54 appellate judges in his first term, the most of any president in a four-year term since Jimmy Carter.

    总体而言,特朗普在第一任期内任命了54名上诉法院法官,是自吉米·卡特以来四年任期内最多的一位总统。

    The impact of Mr. Trump’s nominees will continue to unfold over decades.

    特朗普所任命法官的影响将在未来几十年持续显现。

    “They’re very effective. And they are going to be there for a long time.”

    “他们非常高效,而且会在那里待很久。”

    二、重点词汇(非表格)

    appellate court:上诉法院 bulwark:堡垒;防线 overwhelmingly:压倒性地 reverse a ruling:推翻裁决 erode:逐渐削弱 judicial confirmation:司法任命确认程序 maximalist view:最大化立场 executive actions:行政行为 injunction:禁令 unitary executive theory:单一行政权理论

    三、重点语法(10组)

    have found + 名词 Trump has found a powerful but obscure bulwark… 现在完成时,强调“到目前为止的发现”。 when 引导时间状语从句 when his administration’s actions have been challenged… 表示“在……情况下”。 Time and again 固定短语,表示“一再、屡次”。 far outstrip 程度副词 + 动词,强调“远远超过”。 have been hard to overstate 被动结构,表示“难以夸大”。 If + 一般现在时,主句一般将来/情态 条件句表达普遍规律。 allow sb. to do sth. allowed him to deploy the National Guard There are a number of… 表示“存在若干个……” according to 引出信息来源。 will continue to unfold 将来时 + unfold,表示“影响将逐步显现”。

    四、总结和影响分析

    总结

    这篇报道通过大量数据分析揭示:特朗普在第一任期任命的上诉法院法官,在其第二任期中高度一致地支持其政策,形成了一个极具影响力却不太显眼的权力支点。

    影响分析

    从制度层面看,这强化了上诉法院在美国权力结构中的关键地位。 从政治层面看,司法任命正日益成为总统长期塑造政策方向的重要工具。 从法治角度看,司法裁决高度“阵营化”,可能削弱公众对司法中立性的信任。

  • 纽约时报20260104:特朗普长期想要“拿走石油”,他说这次将在委内瑞拉付诸行动。

    正文中英对照翻译(顺读式)

    Trump Long Wanted to ‘Take the Oil.’ He Says He’ll Do It in Venezuela.

    特朗普长期想要“拿走石油”,他说这次将在委内瑞拉付诸行动。

    The White House had pointed to drug trafficking and migration as reasons to crack down on Nicolás Maduro. But oil emerged as central to President Trump.

    白宫此前将打击尼古拉斯·马杜罗的理由归结为毒品走私和移民问题,但石油显然才是特朗普总统关注的核心。

    While he was out of office, President Trump mused about what would have happened if the United States had taken control of Venezuela.

    在不担任总统期间,特朗普曾反思如果美国接管了委内瑞拉,局势会如何发展。

    “We would have gotten all that oil,” he said in a speech at the North Carolina Republican Convention in 2023. “It would have been right next door.”

    “我们本可以拿到所有那些石油,”他在 2023 年北卡罗来纳州共和党大会的一次演讲中说,“就在我们隔壁。”

    On Saturday, Mr. Trump made it clear that he now intends to follow through.

    而在周六,特朗普明确表示,他现在打算把这一想法付诸实施。

    In the last year, as the Trump administration built up pressure against Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan leader, the president and his top aides said that the aggressive U.S. actions were necessary to curb drugs and migration from that country.

    过去一年里,随着特朗普政府不断加大对委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗的施压力度,总统及其高级助手表示,这些强硬的美国行动是为了遏制来自该国的毒品和移民问题。

    But on Saturday, as Mr. Trump discussed the predawn attack on Venezuela that led to the capture of its leader, it was evident that the president’s longtime fixation on oil was a driving factor in his decision to greenlight the mission.

    但在周六,当特朗普谈及那次凌晨前发动、并最终抓捕该国领导人的袭击时,很明显,总统长期以来对石油的执念是他批准该行动的重要推动因素。

    “We’re going to be taking out a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground,” Mr. Trump told reporters as he celebrated the seizure of Mr. Maduro, promising that American companies would be able to tap more of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.

    “我们将从地下开采出巨额财富,”特朗普在庆祝马杜罗被抓捕时对记者说,并承诺美国公司将能够开发更多委内瑞拉庞大的石油储备。

    The money made, he said, would go not only to the people of Venezuela, but also to American oil companies and “to the United States of America in the form of reimbursement for the damages caused us by that country.”

    他说,获得的资金不仅将惠及委内瑞拉人民,还将流向美国石油公司,并“以补偿的形式返还给美利坚合众国,用于弥补那个国家对我们造成的损害”。

    There was little immediate clarity as to how the White House envisions the United States profiting from Venezuela’s oil.

    然而,白宫究竟设想如何让美国从委内瑞拉石油中获利,目前仍缺乏明确说明。

    Analysts warn that large increases to the country’s oil production could take years and tens of billions of dollars in spending.

    分析人士警告称,大幅提升该国石油产量可能需要多年时间,并投入数百亿美元资金。

    But Mr. Trump indicated that the country’s oil wealth was a key factor not only in his decision to attack, but also in pledging that the United States would “run” Venezuela for the foreseeable future.

    但特朗普表示,委内瑞拉的石油财富不仅是他决定发动袭击的关键因素,也是他承诺美国将在可预见的未来“接管”委内瑞拉的重要原因。

    “It won’t cost us anything because the money coming out of the ground is very substantial,” Mr. Trump said, adding that “we’re going to get reimbursed for everything that we spend.”

    “这不会让我们付出任何成本,因为从地下出来的钱非常可观,”特朗普说,并补充道,“我们将为所有支出获得补偿。”

    Venezuela has about 17 percent of the world’s known oil reserves, or more than 300 billion barrels, more than any other country. But its production is only about 1 percent of the world total.

    委内瑞拉拥有约占全球已知石油储量 17% 的资源,超过 3000 亿桶,是世界上最多的国家之一,但其产量仅占全球总量的约 1%。

    Before Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976, American companies like Exxon, Mobil and Gulf Oil were major players.

    在委内瑞拉于 1976 年将石油工业国有化之前,埃克森、美孚和海湾石油等美国公司都是主要参与者。

    The country reopened its oil industry to foreign drillers in the 1990s, but Hugo Chávez, Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, began another phase of nationalization in 2007.

    该国在 20 世纪 90 年代重新向外国钻探企业开放石油产业,但马杜罗的前任乌戈·查韦斯在 2007 年又开启了新一轮国有化。

    U.S. oil giants like Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips claimed they were owed billions of dollars in compensation because their operations were seized.

    埃克森美孚和康菲石油等美国石油巨头声称,由于其业务被没收,它们应获得数十亿美元的赔偿。

    That history feeds the Trump administration’s contention that Venezuela stole oil from the United States — an argument that the White House increasingly made in the weeks leading up to Saturday’s attack.

    这段历史助长了特朗普政府的说法,即委内瑞拉“偷走了”美国的石油——而白宫在周六袭击前的数周里,越来越频繁地提出这一论点。

    Stephen Miller, the senior Trump adviser central to the president’s immigration crackdown, posted on social media last month that “American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela.”

    特朗普在移民打击政策中的核心顾问斯蒂芬·米勒上个月在社交媒体上发文称,“美国人的汗水、智慧和辛劳创造了委内瑞拉的石油工业。”

    “If you remember, they took all of our energy rights; they took all of our oil from not that long ago,” Mr. Trump said last month. “And we want it back.”

    “如果你还记得的话,不久前他们拿走了我们所有的能源权益,拿走了我们所有的石油,”特朗普上个月说,“而我们要把它拿回来。”

    Laying claim to other countries’ oil has long been a fixture in Mr. Trump’s rhetoric.

    对其他国家石油提出主张,长期以来一直是特朗普言辞中的固定主题。

    “I’ve been saying it for years. Take the oil,” he told The New York Times in 2016, when asked how his strategy to fight the Islamic State in the Middle East would differ from President Barack Obama’s approach.

    “我已经说了好多年了,拿走石油,”他在 2016 年接受《纽约时报》采访、被问及其打击中东伊斯兰国的策略与奥巴马总统有何不同时说道。

    As the Trump administration increased its pressure on Mr. Maduro during the last year, oil was not initially central to its public rationale.

    在过去一年特朗普政府不断加大对马杜罗施压时,石油最初并非其公开理由的核心。

    Instead, the White House focused on claims that Mr. Maduro had directed drug trafficking and gang members who migrated to the United States — some of which have been disputed by Mr. Trump’s own intelligence agencies.

    相反,白宫重点强调马杜罗指挥毒品走私以及帮派成员向美国移民的指控,而其中一些说法甚至遭到特朗普自己情报机构的质疑。

    When Mr. Trump said in March that he would impose tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan oil, he said he was doing it because, he claimed, Venezuela had “purposefully and deceitfully” sent “murderers and people of a very violent nature” to the United States.

    今年 3 月,特朗普表示将对购买委内瑞拉石油的国家征收关税,他称此举是因为委内瑞拉“蓄意且具有欺骗性地”向美国输送了“杀人犯和极端暴力分子”。

    But behind the scenes, as The Times reported last month, the future of Venezuela’s oil was central to Mr. Trump’s deliberations as early as last spring.

    但正如《纽约时报》上个月报道的那样,在幕后,早在去年春天,委内瑞拉石油的未来就已成为特朗普决策考量的核心。

    The White House saw the pressure campaign against Venezuela as a way to combine three separate policy goals: crippling Mr. Maduro, using military force against drug cartels and securing access to Venezuela’s oil reserves for U.S. companies.

    白宫将对委内瑞拉的施压行动视为实现三项目标的方式:削弱马杜罗、对毒品贩运集团动用军事力量,以及为美国公司确保进入委内瑞拉石油储备的渠道。

    Chevron has in recent years been the only U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela, thanks to permission from the governments of both countries to produce and export oil there.

    近年来,得益于两国政府的许可,雪佛龙一直是唯一在委内瑞拉运营的美国石油公司,负责生产并出口石油。

    Chevron’s activities played into the White House deliberations, as the company lobbied the White House for an extension of the Biden-era license that allowed it to expand its operations in Venezuela, as The Times previously reported.

    正如《纽约时报》此前报道的那样,雪佛龙的业务活动也影响了白宫的讨论,该公司曾游说白宫延长拜登时期发放的许可证,以扩大其在委内瑞拉的运营。

    However, on Saturday, Chevron was circumspect, even after Mr. Trump said that U.S. companies would soon spend “billions of dollars” on Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.

    然而,在周六,即便特朗普称美国公司将很快在委内瑞拉石油基础设施上投入“数十亿美元”,雪佛龙仍表现得相当谨慎。

    The company initially sent reporters a statement saying it was “prepared to work constructively with the U.S. government during this period, leveraging our experience and presence to strengthen U.S. energy security.”

    该公司最初向记者发送了一份声明,称其“准备在这一时期与美国政府进行建设性合作,利用我们的经验和既有布局来加强美国的能源安全”。

    It later said the statement was incorrect and issued a new one that removed mention of the U.S. government.

    随后,雪佛龙表示该声明有误,并发布了一份删除了对美国政府提及的新声明。

    “Chevron remains focused on the safety and well-being of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets,” the company said. “We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations.”

    “雪佛龙仍将关注员工的安全与福祉,以及我们资产的完整性,”公司表示,“我们将继续在完全遵守所有相关法律和法规的前提下开展业务。”

    重点词汇表(非表格)

    muse about:沉思,揣测 follow through (on):贯彻执行,落实 build up pressure:逐步加大压力 predawn attack:黎明前的袭击 fixation:执念,强烈迷恋 greenlight:批准(计划、行动) tap (resources):开发、利用(资源) reimbursement:补偿,报销 nationalize:国有化 lay claim to:声称拥有,对……提出主张 public rationale:公开理由 behind the scenes:幕后,私下 circumspect:谨慎的,小心翼翼的

    10 组语法点解析(对应原文)

    While he was out of office, … while 引导时间状语从句,表示“在……期间”。 made it clear that … it 作形式宾语,that 从句是真正宾语。 as the Trump administration built up pressure … as 表示“随着”,引导时间/伴随状语。 it was evident that … 形式主语结构,that 从句是真正主语。 promising that American companies would be able to … 现在分词短语作伴随状语,补充说明主句动作。 There was little immediate clarity as to how … There be 句型 + as to 表示“关于、至于”。 not only … but also … 并列强调结构,注意前后成分对称。 Before Venezuela nationalized its oil industry … before 引导时间状语从句,描述历史先后。 some of which have been disputed … which 引导非限制性定语从句,指代前面的“claims”。 even after Mr. Trump said that … even after 加强让步语气,表示“即便在……之后”。

    内容总结

    这篇报道揭示了特朗普政府对委内瑞拉采取军事与政治行动背后的真实动机。尽管白宫长期以毒品走私和非法移民为公开理由,但文章通过特朗普本人言论和政策背景表明,石油资源才是核心驱动因素。特朗普将控制委内瑞拉石油视为既能“补偿”美国、又能让美国公司获利的战略机会,并据此为长期“接管”该国寻找正当性。

    影响分析

    国际秩序冲击:以“资源补偿”为理由介入他国内政,可能进一步削弱国际法和主权原则。 能源地缘政治升级:委内瑞拉石油被直接纳入美国战略考量,可能引发与其他能源消费国和产油国的摩擦。 商业风险上升:即便美国石油公司潜在受益,但基础设施老化、投资周期长、政治风险高,现实收益高度不确定。 先例效应:若“拿走石油”逻辑被实践,可能成为未来大国干预资源型国家的危险范本。

  • 纽约时报20260104:我们目前所了解的美国在委内瑞拉的行动

    What We Know About the U.S. Operation in Venezuela

    我们目前所了解的美国在委内瑞拉的行动

    U.S. forces carried out an audacious raid on the country’s capital, seizing President Nicolás Maduro. President Trump said the United States now intends to “run” Venezuela.

    美军对该国首都发动了一次大胆的突袭,抓捕了总统 Nicolás Maduro。特朗普总统表示,美国现在打算“接管”委内瑞拉。

    United States Captures Maduro in Strikes on Venezuela

    美国在对委内瑞拉的打击行动中抓获马杜罗

    President Trump said the United States had captured Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan president. Maduro was transported to New York City, where he will face federal drug and weapon charges.

    特朗普总统表示,美国已经抓获了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。马杜罗被押送至纽约市,将面临联邦毒品和武器指控。

    Venezuela’s ousted president, Nicolás Maduro, arrived in Brooklyn late Saturday to be held on drug and weapon charges, hours after President Trump said the United States had captured him and intended to “run the country.”

    在特朗普总统表示美国已将其抓获并打算“接管这个国家”数小时后,被罢黜的委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗于周六深夜抵达布鲁克林,将因毒品和武器指控被拘押。

    The U.S. military operation in Venezuela followed a monthslong campaign by Mr. Trump’s administration to oust the authoritarian leader.

    这次美军在委内瑞拉的行动,发生在特朗普政府历时数月、试图推翻这位威权领导人的行动之后。

    In U.S. cities, it has led to both protests against the military intervention and celebrations among some Venezuelan migrants over the ouster of Mr. Maduro.

    在美国各地城市,这一行动既引发了反对军事干预的抗议,也引起了一些委内瑞拉移民对马杜罗下台的庆祝。

    Here’s what we know:

    以下是目前已知的信息:

    What happened?

    发生了什么?

    The United States carried out “a large scale strike against Venezuela” in which Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured, Mr. Trump said.

    特朗普表示,美国对委内瑞拉发动了一次“大规模打击”,在行动中抓获了马杜罗及其妻子西莉亚·弗洛雷斯。

    Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a news conference on Saturday that Mr. Trump ordered the operation late Friday.

    参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在周六的新闻发布会上表示,特朗普于周五深夜下令实施此次行动。

    The mission involved 150 aircraft that worked to dismantle Venezuelan air defenses so military helicopters could deliver troops to Caracas, the country’s capital, he said.

    他说,此次任务动用了 150 架飞机,先行摧毁委内瑞拉的防空系统,以便军用直升机将部队投送至该国首都加拉加斯。

    The mission took about two hours and 20 minutes and continued into early Saturday, when Mr. Maduro and Ms. Flores “gave up,” General Caine said.

    凯恩将军表示,任务持续约 2 小时 20 分钟,一直进行到周六凌晨,届时马杜罗及其妻子“选择投降”。

    U.S. forces encountered significant resistance, Mr. Trump said.

    特朗普表示,美军在行动中遭遇了相当激烈的抵抗。

    At least 40 people were killed, including military personnel and civilians, according to a senior Venezuelan official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe preliminary reports.

    一名不愿具名的委内瑞拉高级官员称,根据初步报告,至少有 40 人死亡,其中包括军人和平民。

    No Americans were killed, Mr. Trump said.

    特朗普表示,没有美国人丧生。

    Two U.S. officials speaking on the condition of anonymity said that about half a dozen soldiers were injured in the operation.

    两名不愿具名的美国官员称,约有六名士兵在行动中受伤。

    Did Trump have the authority to capture Maduro?

    特朗普是否有权抓捕马杜罗?

    Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at a news conference on Saturday that it would not have been possible to inform U.S. lawmakers in advance of the strike.

    国务卿 Marco Rubio 在周六的新闻发布会上表示,此次行动事先无法通知美国国会议员。

    He and Mr. Trump described the mission as a law enforcement operation, rather than a military action, which would have required greater congressional oversight.

    他与特朗普将此次任务描述为一次执法行动,而非军事行动,因此不需要更严格的国会监督。

    President Trump brushed aside concerns about the constitutionality of his administration’s actions during an interview on Fox & Friends Weekend.

    在接受《Fox & Friends Weekend》采访时,特朗普总统对外界对其政府行为是否合宪的担忧不以为意。

    “They should say, ‘Great job,’” he said. “They shouldn’t say, ‘Oh, gee, maybe it’s not constitutional.’”

    他说:“他们应该说,‘干得漂亮’,而不是说,‘哦,天哪,也许这不合宪。’”

    Representative Jim Himes of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, called on the administration to immediately brief Congress on its legal justification and its plan for the region.

    来自康涅狄格州、众议院情报委员会首席民主党人吉姆·海姆斯呼吁政府立即向国会说明其法律依据及地区计划。

    Mr. Maduro, a self-described socialist, had led Venezuela since 2013.

    自称社会主义者的马杜罗自 2013 年起执掌委内瑞拉。

    The Biden administration had accused Mr. Maduro of stealing the election that kept him in power last year.

    拜登政府曾指控马杜罗在去年通过舞弊选举继续掌权。

    The United Nations Security Council will convene an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss the U.S. strikes in Venezuela.

    United Nations Security Council 将于周一召开紧急会议,讨论美国对委内瑞拉的打击行动。

    Who is in charge of Venezuela now?

    现在谁在掌控委内瑞拉?

    Mr. Trump said that the United States intended to “run the country” until a transition of power could take place.

    特朗普表示,在权力过渡完成之前,美国打算“管理这个国家”。

    Mr. Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, was sworn in as interim president in a secret ceremony.

    马杜罗的副总统 Delcy Rodríguez 据称在一次秘密仪式中宣誓就任临时总统。

    But in a live address to Venezuelans later Saturday, Ms. Rodríguez denounced the United States.

    但在周六晚些时候向全国发表的直播讲话中,罗德里格斯谴责了美国。

    “There is only one president in this country, and his name is Nicolás Maduro Moros.”

    她说:“这个国家只有一位总统,他的名字叫尼古拉斯·马杜罗·莫罗斯。”

    What will happen to Maduro?

    马杜罗将面临什么?

    Mr. Maduro and Ms. Flores “will soon face the full wrath of American justice,” U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said.

    美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪表示,马杜罗及其妻子“很快将面对美国司法的全部制裁”。

    The attorney general posted an unsealed indictment charging him with narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracies and possession of machine guns.

    司法部长公布了一份已解封的起诉书,指控其犯有毒品恐怖主义、可卡因走私阴谋以及持有机枪等罪名。

    重点词汇(非表格)

    audacious:大胆的,鲁莽而激进的

    oust:罢黜,赶下台

    authoritarian:威权主义的

    intervention:干预

    dismantle:拆除,瓦解

    air defenses:防空系统

    give up:投降,放弃抵抗

    constitutionality:合宪性

    oversight:监督

    interim:临时的

    denounce:公开谴责

    indictment:起诉书

    narco-terrorism:毒品恐怖主义

    10 组语法点对照讲解

    carried out an audacious raid 动词短语 carry out 表示“执行、实施”,常用于行动、计划。 intends to “run” Venezuela intend to do 表示“打算做某事”,引号暗示该说法具有争议或非常规含义。 followed a monthslong campaign followed 表示“发生在……之后”,非“跟随”的字面含义。 speaking on condition of anonymity 现在分词短语作后置定语,表示“在匿名条件下发言的”。 so that military helicopters could deliver troops so that 引导目的状语从句。 was sworn in as interim president swear in as 是固定搭配,表示“宣誓就任”。 rather than a military action rather than 用于对比,强调“而不是”。 brushed aside concerns brush aside 为习语,表示“轻描淡写地否定、不予理会”。 will convene an emergency meeting will + 动词原形 表示官方已确定的未来安排。 charges that carry lengthy prison sentences that carry… 为定语从句,说明前面的 charges。

    内容总结与影响分析

    内容总结

    本文系统梳理了美国突袭委内瑞拉、抓捕马杜罗的全过程,包括军事细节、法律争议、国际反应以及委内瑞拉国内权力真空问题。特朗普政府将该行动定性为“执法行为”,并公开表示美国将暂时“接管”该国。

    影响分析

    这一事件标志着美国对拉美事务采取了极其激进的直接干预方式,可能引发国际法层面的长期争议,也会加剧美国国内关于总统战争权力与宪法边界的冲突。同时,委内瑞拉国内的政治合法性问题并未因马杜罗被捕而解决,反而可能进入更复杂、更不稳定的过渡期。

  • 纽约时报20260104:特朗普如何锁定一位马杜罗的忠诚派,作为委内瑞拉的新领导人

    How Trump Fixed On a Maduro Loyalist as Venezuela’s New Leader

    特朗普如何锁定一位马杜罗的忠诚派,作为委内瑞拉的新领导人

    Nicolás Maduro balked at a gilded exile. U.S. officials then saw a more pliant option in his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, known for stabilizing Venezuela’s economy.

    尼古拉斯·马杜罗拒绝了“镀金式流亡”。随后,美国官员将目光转向他更为“听话”的副总统德尔西·罗德里格斯——她以稳定委内瑞拉经济而闻名。

    It was one dance move too many for Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro.

    对委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗来说,多跳了一次舞,成了压垮局势的最后一根稻草。

    Mr. Maduro in late December rejected an ultimatum from President Trump to leave office and go into a gilded exile in Turkey, according to several Americans and Venezuelans involved in transition talks.

    据多名参与过渡谈判的美国与委内瑞拉人士透露,去年12月下旬,马杜罗拒绝了特朗普总统提出的最后通牒:下台并前往土耳其,过一种“富贵而安全的流亡生活”。

    This week he was back onstage, brushing off the latest U.S. escalation — a strike on a dock that the United States said was used for drug trafficking — by bouncing to an electronic beat on state television while his recorded voice repeated in English, “No crazy war.”

    本周,他再次出现在公众舞台上,对美国最新一轮升级行动——美方称用于毒品走私的一个码头遭到打击——表现得满不在乎。他在国家电视台上随着电子音乐节奏摇摆,录音里的英文反复播放:“不要疯狂的战争。”

    Mr. Maduro’s regular public dancing and other displays of nonchalance in recent weeks helped persuade some on the Trump team that the Venezuelan president was mocking them and trying to call what he believed to be a bluff, according to two of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about the confidential discussions.

    据两名因无权公开谈论机密讨论而要求匿名的人士称,马杜罗近几周频繁在公开场合跳舞、表现得若无其事,让特朗普团队中的一些人相信,他是在嘲弄美国,试图挑战他们的“虚张声势”。

    So the White House decided to follow through on its military threats.

    于是,白宫决定将其军事威胁付诸行动。

    On Saturday, an elite U.S. military team swooped into Caracas, the capital, in a pre-dawn raid and whisked Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to New York to face drug trafficking charges.

    周六凌晨,一支美国精锐特种部队突袭委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯,将马杜罗及其妻子西莉亚·弗洛雷斯带往纽约,面临毒品走私指控。

    Weeks earlier, U.S. officials had already settled on an acceptable candidate to replace Mr. Maduro, at least for the time being: Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who had impressed Trump officials with her management of Venezuela’s crucial oil industry.

    数周前,美国官员就已经选定了一个至少在过渡期内可接受的替代人选:副总统德尔西·罗德里格斯。她在管理委内瑞拉关键石油产业方面的表现,给特朗普政府留下了深刻印象。

    The people involved in the discussions said intermediaries persuaded the administration that she would protect and champion future American energy investments in the country.

    参与讨论的人士表示,中间人说服政府相信,罗德里格斯将保护并推动未来美国在委内瑞拉的能源投资。

    “I’ve been watching her career for a long time, so I have some sense of who she is and what she’s about,” said one senior U.S. official.

    一名美国高级官员表示:“我关注她的职业生涯已经很久了,所以对她是谁、她在做什么,我是有些了解的。”

    “I’m not claiming that she’s the permanent solution to the country’s problems, but she’s certainly someone we think we can work with at a much more professional level than we were able to do with him,” the official added, referring to Mr. Maduro.

    这名官员补充说,他并不认为她是解决委内瑞拉问题的永久方案,但她显然是一个美国认为可以比马杜罗更专业地合作的人。

    It was an easy choice, the people said. Mr. Trump had never warmed up to the Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who had organized a winning presidential campaign in 2024, earning her the Nobel Peace Prize this year.

    知情人士称,这是一个“容易的选择”。特朗普从未真正接纳委内瑞拉反对派领袖玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多。她在2024年组织了一场胜选的总统竞选,并因此在今年获得诺贝尔和平奖。

    Since Mr. Trump’s re-election, Ms. Machado has gone out of her way to please him, calling him a “champion of freedom,” mimicking his talking points on election fraud in the United States and even dedicating her Peace Prize to him.

    自特朗普再度当选以来,马查多竭力讨好他,称其为“自由的捍卫者”,模仿他关于美国选举舞弊的论调,甚至将她的和平奖献给了他。

    It was in vain.

    但这一切都是徒劳的。

    On Saturday, Mr. Trump said he would accept Ms. Rodríguez, saying that Ms. Machado lacked the “respect” needed to govern Venezuela.

    周六,特朗普表示他将接受罗德里格斯,称马查多缺乏治理委内瑞拉所需的“威望”。

    U.S. officials say that their relationship with Ms. Rodríguez’s interim government will be based on her ability to play by their rules, adding that they reserve the right to take additional military action if she fails to respect America’s interests.

    美国官员表示,美方与罗德里格斯临时政府的关系,将取决于她是否按照美国的规则行事;如果她未能尊重美国利益,美方保留进一步采取军事行动的权利。

    Mr. Trump declared on Saturday that the United States intended to “run” Venezuela for an unspecified period and reclaim U.S. oil interests.

    特朗普周六宣称,美国将“接管”委内瑞拉一段不确定的时间,并重新夺回美国的石油利益。

    Ms. Rodríguez, 56, arrives at the job of Venezuela’s interim leader with credentials of an economic troubleshooter who orchestrated the country’s shift from corrupt socialism to similarly corrupt laissez-faire capitalism.

    56岁的罗德里格斯以“经济问题修复者”的背景走上委内瑞拉临时领导人岗位,她主导了该国从腐败的社会主义,向同样腐败的自由放任资本主义的转变。

    She is the daughter of a Marxist guerrilla who won fame for kidnapping an American businessman.

    她是马克思主义游击队员的女儿,其父因绑架一名美国商人而声名大噪。

    As Ms. Rodríguez consolidated control over economic policy and eliminated rivals, she built bridges with Venezuela’s economic elites, foreign investors and diplomats.

    在巩固对经济政策的控制、清除对手的过程中,罗德里格斯与委内瑞拉经济精英、外国投资者和外交官建立了联系。

    For all her technocratic leanings, Ms. Rodríguez has never denounced the brutal repression and corruption sustaining Mr. Maduro’s rule.

    尽管她具有技术官僚倾向,罗德里格斯从未谴责支撑马杜罗政权的残酷镇压和腐败。

    “History is full of sectors and figures linked to dictators who have, at some point, served as a bridge to stabilize the country and transition to a democratic scenario,” said Juan Francisco García, a former ruling party lawmaker.

    前执政党议员胡安·弗朗西斯科·加西亚表示,历史上不乏曾与独裁者有关联的人物,在某个阶段成为稳定国家、推动民主转型的桥梁。

    For Trump, democracy is not a concern — it is about money, power, and protecting the homeland from drugs and criminals.

    分析人士指出,对特朗普而言,民主并非核心关切,真正重要的是金钱、权力,以及防范毒品与犯罪对美国本土的威胁。

  • 纽约时报20260104:特朗普将美国拖入在委内瑞拉的一个全新高风险时代

    一、逐段中英对照翻译

    标题

    Trump Plunges the U.S. Into a New Era of Risk in Venezuela

    特朗普将美国拖入在委内瑞拉的一个全新高风险时代

    President Trump opened a new chapter in American nation building as he declared that the United States had toppled Venezuela’s leader and would “run” the country for an indefinite period.

    特朗普总统宣布美国已经推翻了委内瑞拉领导人,并将在不确定期限内“管理”该国,由此开启了美国“国家建构”的新篇章。

    President Trump’s declaration on Saturday that the United States planned to “run” Venezuela for an unspecified period, issuing orders to its government and exploiting its vast oil reserves, plunged the United States into a risky new era in which it will seek economic and political dominance over a nation of roughly 30 million people.

    特朗普周六宣布,美国计划在不确定时期内“管理”委内瑞拉,对其政府下达命令并开发其巨大的石油资源。这一表态使美国进入了一个高风险的新阶段,美国将在一个约三千万人口的国家中寻求经济和政治上的主导地位。

    Speaking at his Mar-a-Lago private club just hours after Nicolás Maduro, the leader of Venezuela, and his wife were seized from their bedroom by U.S. forces, Mr. Trump told reporters that Delcy Rodríguez, who served as Mr. Maduro’s vice president, would hold power in Venezuela as long as she “does what we want.”

    在委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子被美军从卧室带走的数小时后,特朗普在其位于海湖庄园的私人俱乐部对记者表示,只要“照我们的话去做”,曾担任马杜罗副总统的德尔西·罗德里格斯就将掌权。

    Ms. Rodríguez, however, showed little public interest in doing the Americans’ bidding. In a national address, she accused Washington of invading her country under false pretenses and asserted that Mr. Maduro was still Venezuela’s head of state.

    然而,罗德里格斯在公开场合并未表现出服从美国意愿的态度。她在全国讲话中指责华盛顿以虚假借口入侵委内瑞拉,并坚称马杜罗仍然是国家元首。

    “What is being done to Venezuela is a barbarity,” she said.

    她说:“对委内瑞拉所做的一切是野蛮行径。”

    Mr. Trump and his top national security advisers carefully avoided describing their plans for Venezuela as an occupation … Instead, they vaguely sketched out an arrangement similar to a guardianship…

    特朗普及其最高国家安全顾问刻意避免将对委内瑞拉的计划描述为“占领”。相反,他们模糊地勾勒出一种类似“监护”的安排:美国将为委内瑞拉的治理提供蓝图,并要求过渡政府在威胁进一步军事干预的情况下执行这些安排。

    Even after Ms. Rodríguez contradicted Mr. Trump, Marco Rubio… said he was withholding judgment.

    即便在罗德里格斯公开反驳特朗普之后,国务卿兼国家安全顾问马可·鲁比奥仍表示暂不作出判断。

    “We’re going to make decisions based on their actions and their deeds in the days and weeks to come,” he said…

    他说:“我们将根据他们在未来几天和几周内的行为来作出决定。”

    Mr. Trump suggested… there would be a “second wave” of military action if the United States ran into resistance…

    特朗普暗示,如果美国在地面或面对委内瑞拉官员的阻力,可能会发动“第二波”军事行动。

    “We’re not afraid of boots on the ground,” Mr. Trump said.

    特朗普说:“我们不害怕派遣地面部队。”

    Mr. Trump paired that with a declaration that a key American goal was to regain access to oil rights…

    特朗普同时宣布,美国的一个核心目标是重新获得他所称“被偷走”的石油权益。

    Mr. Trump’s actions on Saturday cast America back to a past era of gunboat diplomacy…

    特朗普周六的举动让美国仿佛回到了“炮舰外交”的年代——通过军事力量攫取领土和资源。

    The U.S. operation… has little precedent in recent decades…

    美国试图控制一个庞大的拉美国家,在近几十年几乎没有先例,更让人想起19世纪和20世纪初在墨西哥、尼加拉瓜等地的帝国主义军事行动。

    But that indictment only deals with Mr. Maduro’s alleged crimes. It did not provide a legal basis for taking control of the country…

    然而,该起诉书只涉及马杜罗个人的涉嫌犯罪,并未为美国接管整个国家提供法律依据。

    Now, he made clear, he was taking it back…

    如今,特朗普明确表示,他要把这些资源“拿回来”,并称在委内瑞拉人“变富”之前,美国人将首先得到补偿。

    But that left many open questions.

    但这也留下了大量悬而未决的问题。

    All of these questions… could enmesh the United States into exactly the kind of “forever wars”…

    所有这些问题都有可能将美国拖入特朗普支持者所警惕的那种“无休止战争”。

    For much of the 20th century, the United States intervened militarily in smaller countries…

    在20世纪的大部分时间里,美国曾多次军事干预加勒比和中美洲的小国,但委内瑞拉面积是伊拉克的两倍,其复杂性不容低估。

    “Any democratic transition will require the buy-in of pro-regime and anti-regime elements,” …

    一位研究委内瑞拉问题的学者指出,任何民主过渡都需要亲政府与反政府力量的共同认可。

    二、重点词汇表(非表格)

    plunge into:使陷入(通常指危险或困难境地) nation building:国家建构(战后或干预后的政治重建) topple:推翻(政权、领导人) run a country:治理、管理一个国家 indefinite period:不确定期限 exploit (resources):开发、攫取资源(含负面意味) do someone’s bidding:听命于某人 false pretenses:虚假借口 occupation:军事占领 guardianship:监护、托管(政治语境中多为委婉说法) boots on the ground:地面部队 gunboat diplomacy:炮舰外交 extraterritorial rendition:域外引渡/绑架式引渡 forever wars:无休止战争

    三、10 组语法点对照讲解

    as he declared that… as 表示“当……之时 / 同时”,引导时间与因果并存的状语从句。 would “run” the country would 在报道中过去将来时,表示“当时宣称将会”。 for an unspecified period for + 时间段 表持续时间,unspecified 为过去分词作定语。 just hours after… were seized after 引导时间从句,被动语态 were seized。 as long as she “does what we want” as long as 表条件,“只要”。 showed little interest in doing… interest in + 动名词 固定搭配。 carefully avoided describing… as… avoid + doing;describe A as B 常见搭配。 under the threat of further military intervention under + 抽象名词 表状态或条件。 has little precedent little 是否定意味,强调“几乎没有”。 If it splinters, … things could get violent 条件句中 could 表示可能性而非能力。

    四、新闻总结

    这篇报道指出,特朗普公开宣称美国将“接管”委内瑞拉,并直接点名由美方官员主导国家治理,这标志着美国外交与军事政策进入一个极具争议的新阶段。文章强调,这种做法既缺乏明确法律依据,也在政治、军事与经济层面带来巨大不确定性,尤其是在石油资源控制和长期军事介入方面。

    五、影响分析(延伸理解)

    对美国自身 可能陷入长期军事与政治泥潭,与其反对“永久战争”的国内政治叙事相矛盾。 对拉美地区 强烈刺激地区反美情绪,可能引发地区国家联合抵制或安全局势恶化。 对国际秩序 弱化“主权不可侵犯”的国际规范,为大国以资源或安全为名进行干预提供危险先例。 对能源与经济 短期内或影响全球石油市场,但长期看需要巨额投入和安全保障,成本极高。

  • 纽约时报20251224:他们试图遏制网络仇恨言论,而美国却指责他们搞审查

    一、逐段中英对照翻译

    标题

    They Seek to Curb Online Hate. The U.S. Accuses Them of Censorship.

    他们试图遏制网络仇恨言论,而美国却指责他们搞审查。

    The Trump administration said five regulators and researchers who work to tackle disinformation and abuse on the internet had been barred from entering the United States.

    特朗普政府表示,五名致力于打击网络虚假信息和网络虐待行为的监管者和研究人员,被禁止进入美国。

    导语

    Thierry Breton, a former European commissioner, was one of five Europeans that Secretary of State Marco Rubio called “radical activists.”

    前欧盟委员 Thierry Breton 是五名欧洲人士之一,美国国务卿 Marco Rubio 将他们称为“激进活动人士”。

    人物介绍

    Josephine Ballon and Anna-Lena von Hodenberg lead a German legal aid organization that assists individuals facing online abuse and violent threats.

    约瑟芬·巴隆和安娜-莱娜·冯·霍登贝格领导着一家德国法律援助组织,帮助遭受网络辱骂和暴力威胁的个人。

    Clare Melford runs a British group that helps identify disinformation.

    克莱尔·梅尔福德负责一家英国机构,专门识别虚假信息。

    Imran Ahmed is a British activist who runs an organization that has chronicled anti-vaccination content on social media.

    伊姆兰·艾哈迈德是一名英国活动人士,他运营的组织长期记录社交媒体上的反疫苗内容。

    核心指控

    On Tuesday, the Trump administration accused all of them of a campaign of censorship against Americans.

    周二,特朗普政府指控他们共同发起了一场针对美国人的“审查行动”。

    The four individuals, along with a former senior European Commission official, Thierry Breton of France, were barred from entering the United States after Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled them “radical activists” who undercut free speech.

    这四人连同法国前欧盟高级官员布雷顿,被禁止入境美国。鲁比奥称他们是“破坏言论自由的激进分子”。

    欧洲方面反应

    On Wednesday, European officials including President Emmanuel Macron of France criticized the Trump administration’s decision.

    周三,包括法国总统 Emmanuel Macron 在内的欧洲官员批评了特朗普政府的决定。

    “These measures amount to intimidation and coercion aimed at undermining European digital sovereignty,” Mr. Macron said on social media.

    马克龙在社交媒体上表示:“这些措施构成了恐吓和胁迫,目的是削弱欧洲的数字主权。”

    “The rules governing the European Union’s digital space are not meant to be determined outside Europe.”

    “欧盟数字空间的规则,不应由欧洲以外的力量来决定。”

    欧盟立场

    Thomas Régnier, a spokesman for the European Commission, said, “Our digital rules ensure a safe, fair and level playing field for all companies, applied fairly and without discrimination.”

    欧盟委员会发言人托马斯·雷尼耶表示:“我们的数字法规旨在确保一个安全、公平、竞争环境一致的市场,并且公平、无歧视地适用于所有公司。”

    背景冲突

    The travel ban is a major escalation in a dispute between the Trump administration and Europe over the regulation of online content and social media.

    这项入境禁令,是特朗普政府与欧洲在网络内容和社交媒体监管问题上冲突的重大升级。

    In the United States, free speech protections allow social media companies to set their own content policies.

    在美国,言论自由保护使社交媒体公司可以自行制定内容政策。

    Mr. Trump and others on the right have successfully pushed social media firms to roll back moderation rules that they viewed as silencing conservative voices.

    特朗普及其他右翼人士成功推动社交媒体平台削弱他们认为“压制保守派声音”的内容审核规则。

    欧盟法律框架

    In Britain and the European Union, there are certain restrictions on hate speech and open bigotry.

    在英国和欧盟,对仇恨言论和公开歧视行为存在一定限制。

    In 2022, the European Union passed a law called the Digital Services Act…

    2022年,欧盟通过了《数字服务法》(DSA),要求社交媒体公司提高透明度,并在违反各国法律时删除种族主义、反犹主义和暴力内容。

    The Trump administration sees the Digital Services Act as an attempt to force American platforms to censor speech globally — an allegation European officials deny.

    特朗普政府认为该法意在迫使美国平台在全球范围内进行言论审查,而欧洲官员对此予以否认。

    X(原 Twitter)事件

    The issue came to a head this month when the European Commission fined Elon Musk’s social media platform X $140 million.

    本月,这一争端达到高潮:欧盟委员会对 X 罚款1.4亿美元。

    Mr. Musk said the European Union should be abolished.

    马斯克回应称,欧盟“应该被废除”。

    各组织回应

    HateAid, founded in 2018, provides counseling, safety advice and litigation financing…

    成立于2018年的 HateAid 提供心理辅导、安全建议和诉讼资金支持,帮助网络攻击受害者维权。

    German officials came to the organization’s defense…

    德国官员公开为该组织辩护,称美方入境禁令“不可接受”。

    “We will not be intimidated by a government that uses accusations of censorship to silence those who stand up for human rights,”

    该组织回应称:“我们不会被一个利用‘审查指控’来压制人权与言论自由捍卫者的政府所吓倒。”

    其他组织

    Ms. Melford runs the Global Disinformation Index…

    梅尔福德领导的 Global Disinformation Index 为广告商提供风险评级,帮助其避免在传播虚假信息的网站投放广告。

    Mr. Ahmed is the chief executive of the Center for Countering Digital Hate…

    艾哈迈德是 Center for Countering Digital Hate 的首席执行官。该机构曾因揭示仇恨言论上升趋势而遭马斯克起诉,但美国法院驳回了该案。

    二、重点词汇表

    curb

    动词,意为“遏制、抑制”。

    新闻和政策语境中常用于描述政府或机构对社会问题的控制行为。

    原文语境:curb online hate(遏制网络仇恨言论)

    online hate

    名词短语,指网络仇恨言论或仇恨行为。

    常与 hate speech、online abuse 并列出现,属于数字治理核心概念。

    censorship

    名词,审查制度、言论审查。

    在美欧语境中高度政治化,美国通常将其与违宪风险挂钩。

    barred from

    固定搭配,表示“被禁止进入 / 被禁止从事某事”。

    多用于移民、外交、法律新闻。

    radical activists

    名词短语,“激进活动人士”。

    带明显贬义,常用于政治标签化。

    undercut

    动词,削弱、损害。

    原文中指“削弱言论自由”,多用于抽象价值或制度层面。

    digital sovereignty

    名词短语,数字主权。

    欧盟近年来的关键词,强调对数据、平台和规则的主权控制。

    intimidation

    名词,恐吓、威逼。

    外交场合中的强烈指控用语。

    coercion

    名词,胁迫、强制。

    常与 intimidation 并列使用,构成法律和外交中的“双重指控”。

    level playing field

    固定表达,公平竞争环境。

    经济、贸易和科技监管文本中的高频搭配。

    travel ban

    名词短语,入境禁令、旅行禁令。

    在特朗普政府时期成为高频政治词汇。

    free speech protections

    名词短语,言论自由保护。

    通常指美国宪法第一修正案衍生的法律体系。

    moderation rules

    名词短语,内容审核规则。

    平台治理中的技术—政策交叉概念。

    roll back

    动词短语,回撤、削弱、取消(政策或规则)。

    隐含“倒退”或“放松监管”的意味。

    hate speech

    名词,仇恨言论。

    在欧盟法律中往往是可受限制的表达类型。

    bigotry

    名词,偏执、歧视性观念。

    比 prejudice 更强调道德否定。

    disinformation

    名词,虚假信息(通常指“有意传播的”)。

    区别于 misinformation(无意错误信息)。

    come to a head

    固定表达,问题达到爆发点、高潮。

    新闻报道中常用于冲突升级。

    opaque

    形容词,不透明的。

    监管语境下是负面评价。

    allegation

    名词,指控、指责(未被证实)。

    新闻中常配合 deny 使用,保持客观语气。

    三、10 组语法与表达点精讲(对照原文)

    seek to + 动词 They seek to curb online hate → 表示“试图做某事”,比 try 更正式 accuse A of B accused all of them of a campaign of censorship → 新闻报道固定搭配 be barred from doing were barred from entering the United States → 法律/移民语境常用 label A as B labeled them “radical activists” → 带主观评价色彩 amount to + 抽象名词 These measures amount to intimidation → 强烈定性判断 be meant to do are not meant to be determined outside Europe → 政策文本高频结构 come to a head The issue came to a head this month → 冲突“爆发点” view A as B viewed as silencing conservative voices → 主观看法表达 deny an allegation an allegation European officials deny → 新闻客观转述 be dismissed as dismissed the lawsuit as a violation of free speech → 法院/评论常见

    四、内容总结(Summary)

    这篇报道围绕美国与欧洲在“网络内容治理”上的制度性冲突展开。特朗普政府以“保护言论自由”为由,禁止多名欧洲监管人士和研究者入境,指控他们通过法律与研究手段对美国人实施审查;而欧洲则强调其政策旨在维护网络安全、公共秩序与数字主权。

    五、影响与深层分析(Impact Analysis)

    1️⃣ 美欧“言论自由”定义出现结构性分裂

    美国:强调平台自治 + 第一修正案 欧盟:强调公共秩序 + 法律约束

    2️⃣ 科技平台成为地缘政治博弈前线

    X、Meta、Google 等不再只是公司,而是“制度冲突的载体”。

    3️⃣ 对全球 AI / 内容审核算法的长期影响

    模型训练 内容过滤标准 跨国合规成本 都会被政治立场深度影响。

    4️⃣ 对研究人员与 NGO 的寒蝉效应

    这类“入境制裁”可能抑制跨国学术与治理合作。

  • 纽约时报20251224:追逐经济繁荣之际,白宫淡化人工智能风险

    一、逐段中英对照翻译

    标题

    Chasing an Economic Boom, White House Dismisses Risks of A.I.

    追逐经济繁荣之际,白宫淡化人工智能风险

    The administration has downplayed concerns — from mass job losses, to a potential financial bubble — as President Trump cheers soaring stock prices and faster growth.

    在总统特朗普为股市飙升和经济加速增长欢呼之际,政府淡化了从大规模失业到潜在金融泡沫等一系列担忧。

    开头背景

    It was early November, and the stock market had grown jittery as investors recoiled anew over the enormous bets the nation’s largest technology companies had placed on artificial intelligence.

    11月初,随着投资者再次对美国最大科技公司在人工智能上的巨额押注感到不安,股市变得紧张起来。

    But the skittishness playing out on Wall Street that day barely registered at the White House.

    但当天华尔街的这种不安,几乎没有在白宫引起任何反应。

    Asked whether he harbored any fears about an emerging bubble, one that could damage the economy if it were to pop, President Trump brushed aside all doubts.

    当被问及是否担心正在形成的泡沫、以及泡沫破裂可能对经济造成损害时,特朗普总统轻描淡写地否认了所有疑虑。

    “No,” he quickly replied, “I love A.I.”

    “没有,”他迅速回答说,“我热爱人工智能。”

    白宫的态度

    For Mr. Trump, there is no risk, only reward, posed by the dawning and disruptive new age of computing.

    在特朗普看来,这个正在到来、并具有颠覆性的计算新时代只存在回报,而不存在风险。

    Over the past year, the president and his top aides have fully embraced A.I., and showered its leading corporate backers with money and regulatory support, as the administration looks to supercharge one of the primary areas of growth in an otherwise precarious U.S. economy.

    在过去一年中,总统及其核心幕僚全面拥抱人工智能,并向主要企业支持者提供资金和监管上的支持,试图在整体并不稳固的美国经济中,强化这一主要增长引擎。

    经济数据与“繁荣”叙事

    That optimism was on display on Tuesday, after the federal government reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of more than 4 percent last quarter.

    周二,这种乐观情绪再次显现:联邦政府报告称,美国经济在上个季度的年化增长率超过4%。

    Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, told CNBC that the new data indicated that the president’s broader agenda was working as he touted the signs of a “boom” in A.I.

    白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特对 CNBC 表示,这些新数据表明总统的整体政策正在奏效,并大力宣传人工智能领域出现的“繁荣”。

    分歧声音

    The administration’s unqualified support contrasts starkly with the more cautious tone struck by economists and even some technologists in Silicon Valley.

    政府这种毫无保留的支持态度,与经济学家、甚至硅谷部分技术人士的谨慎立场形成了鲜明对比。

    Many still question whether A.I. might cause significant job losses, at least temporarily, and fret over the speed and methods that have allowed the industry to grow in ways that may not be sustainable and could risk financial havoc.

    许多人仍在质疑人工智能是否会(至少在短期内)造成大量失业,并担忧该行业以可能不可持续的方式高速扩张,进而引发金融风险。

    股市与政治

    The White House has largely waved off many of those concerns.

    白宫基本无视了这些担忧。

    Instead, Mr. Trump, who has long viewed the stock market as a barometer of his economic success, has courted and celebrated the soaring stock prices of major technology companies like Nvidia.

    相反,长期将股市视为自己经济政绩指标的特朗普,积极拉拢并庆祝英伟达等大型科技公司的股价飙升。

    就业冲击争论

    “Generative A.I. is a potential game changer for productivity and the economy,” said Glenn Hubbard…

    格伦·哈伯德表示:“生成式人工智能可能会成为生产力和经济的颠覆性改变者。”

    But, he said, that was not to suggest that there were no economic and political constraints…

    但他同时指出,这并不意味着人工智能在融资方式、对社区的影响以及对就业的冲击上不存在经济和政治层面的限制。

    “大规模裁员”还是“超级教练”

    For now, economic data reflects no mass firings because of A.I.

    目前,经济数据尚未显示出由人工智能导致的大规模裁员。

    But a growing body of research still hints at the ways the technology may reshape the labor force, particularly for younger Americans…

    但越来越多的研究表明,人工智能正在重塑劳动力市场,尤其影响年轻人和应届毕业生。

    美联储的关注

    How A.I. affects employment has attracted heightened attention at the Federal Reserve…

    人工智能对就业的影响,已引起美联储的高度关注。

    “The disruptions come first; the benefits take time,”

    “冲击总是先到来,收益则需要时间显现。”

    泡沫隐忧

    Some economists now see troubling similarities between that downturn and the current trajectory of A.I.

    一些经济学家认为,当前人工智能的发展轨迹,与当年的互联网泡沫存在令人不安的相似之处。

    “In the near term, there is a lot of froth in A.I.,”

    “从短期看,人工智能领域存在大量泡沫。”

    白宫的底线

    Still, the White House has expressed little concern with the investments placed by A.I. companies…

    尽管如此,白宫几乎未对人工智能企业的投资规模及融资方式表现出担忧。

    “There will be no federal bailout for AI.”

    “不会有联邦层面的人工智能救助。”

    结尾警告

    “We don’t know if we’re in a bubble… but there are certainly many warning signs out there.”

    “我们无法确定是否身处泡沫之中,但毫无疑问,已经出现了许多警示信号。”

    二、精选 10 个语法与表达点讲解

    downplay concerns 表示“淡化、轻描淡写地对待担忧”。 harbor fears harbor 本义“藏匿”,这里表示“心存恐惧”。 brush aside 意为“不予理会、草率否定”。 posed by… 常用于抽象名词,表示“由……带来的(风险/挑战)”。 as the administration looks to… look to 表示“试图、力求”。 contrasts starkly with starkly 强调“鲜明、强烈地对比”。 at least temporarily 插入语,表示“至少在短期内”。 has largely waved off wave off = dismiss,带有随意、不重视的语气。 portends generational change portend = 预示,常用于正式语境。 time inconsistency between A and B 表示“A 与 B 在时间上的不一致”,偏经济学表达。

    三、文章核心内容总结

    这篇文章主要讲的是:

    特朗普政府为了追求经济增长和股市繁荣,对人工智能采取高度乐观、强力扶持、弱监管的态度,系统性忽视了失业风险与金融泡沫隐忧。

    文章通过:

    白宫的政策取向 经济学家与美联储官员的警告 历史上互联网泡沫的类比

    构建出一种“政策乐观 vs 现实不确定性”的张力。

    四、影响与延伸分析(偏思考)

    短期利好明确 AI 投资 → 数据中心 → 就业、GDP、股市,全链条刺激增长。 中期风险集中在就业结构 不是“有没有工作”,而是年轻白领、初级岗位被挤压。 长期真正的不确定性在金融层面 高杠杆 + 超前投资,一旦回报兑现慢于预期,风险可能集中爆发。 政策信号本身在“放大泡沫” 当政府明确表态“不会监管、不会救助”,市场更容易激进下注。

  • 《读懂财务报表》笔记

    《读懂财务报表》笔记

    《读懂财务报表(手绘版)》艾玛·沈 著,本书以绘画和图解,介绍财务报表,非常适合没有会计基础的小白。推荐对于枯燥概念提不起兴趣的小伙伴可以移步原著。下面摘录其重点:

    财务报表,就是企业经营的成绩单。通过财务报表,可以在投资中排除坏公司。

    1. 财务报表可信度

    在看财务报表之前,我们需要先调查财务报表的可信度,一般会计师事务所会在年报上提供意见:

    • 标注无保留意见:几个了,妇科工人的会计原则
    • 附带说明的无保留意见:这家公司有问题
    • 保留意见:假报表,别看了
    • 无法出局意见
    • 否定意见

    2. 合并报表和母公司报表

    合并报表更值得关注,合并报表会抵消母子、子孙公司之间的投资、交易和债权债务。

    3. 财务报表

    • 资产负债表:权责发生制 (有多少家当)
    • 利润表:权责发生制 (赚钱还是亏钱)
    • 现金流量表:收付实现制(收到多少钱,付出多少钱)

    4. 资产

    资产负债表的左边和右边相等:资产=负债+股东权益

    4.1 偿债能力

    在资产表中,按照资产变现的方便程度排列。企业偿债能力从严到松有下面几个指标

    • 现金比率=货币资金/流动负债:用来评估企业用现金偿付短期债务的能力。比例太高:资金利用率太低,比例太低:会还不了债。
    • 速动比率=(流动资产-存货)/ 流动负债: 如果小于 50%,则短期偿债能力可能存在重大问题
    • 流动比率=流动资产/流动负债 : 如果小于 1, 则短期偿债能力可能存在重大问题

    4.2 债权

    三大债权:

    • 应收账款:说明买方比较强势,供过于求。 (获得了收款的权利,还没有收到钱,已经是营业收入)
    • 其他应收账款:杂七杂八的应收款。
    • 预付账款:说明卖方比较强势,供不应求。(钱已经付出去了,货还没有收到)

    合同资产 和 应收账款 区别:

    • 应收账款:全部交货,没有其他履约义务。(面临货款收不到的信用风险)
    • 合同资产:部分交货 或 还是有其它履约义务。(面临货款收不到信用风险,以及无法完成履约的履约风险)

    坏账准备金:

    • 基于健康性原则,会计准则要求企业定期对应收账款和其他应收款计提坏账准备金。
    • 坏账准备金是公司盈余管理的缓冲器(容易有水分)
    • 账龄越大,越容易产生坏账

    4.3 存货

    对于存货,需要关注以下指标:

    • 存货周转天数
    • 存货周转率
    • 存货占总资产的比重
    • 毛利率的提升是否与存货的增加有关

    4.4 流动资产和非流动资产

    之前介绍的都是流动资产,后面介绍非流动资产

    • 流动资产:预计一年内产生收益的资产(现金、应收账款、存货)
    • 非流动资产:预计一年以上产生收益的资产(地产、厂房、设备、长期投资)

    4.5 长期投资

    需要关注两点:

    • 投资方向是否一致
    • 核算方法有无变更

    4.6 固定资产

    • 资产评估
    • 计提折旧(好的公司喜欢快速折旧)

    4.7 在建工程

    工程达到预定可使用状态后必须转成固定资产。

    (再见工厂数目巨大,又迟迟不转入固定资产的情况,需要提高警惕)

    4.8 轻资产公司和重资产公司

    很多重资产企业都在往轻资产运营转型。(如苹果公司、可口可乐、耐克、光明乳业等),他们会把投入大却赚钱少的业务环节外包。最大化地利用平拍文化、技术研发、人力资源等轻资产,提升资本回报率。

    轻资产企业的财报特征:

    • 重资产公司:需要不断投入资金,进行维护、更新或升级,并产生大量折旧。
    • 重资产公司如果估值足够便宜,或正处于行业高增长的初期,也同样是优质的投资目标。(注意在市场饱和前撤出)
    • 轻资产公司:可变成本,成本跟随销量下滑,使企业更容易在逆境中保持盈利能力。
    • 轻资产公司在投资重更具优势

    4.9 无形资产

    没有诗题形态,可辨认非货币型资产。包括专利权、非专利权、商标权、著作权、土地使用权、特许经营权等。

    4.10 表外资产

    报表不能体现,价值无法量化,例如:品牌、业务数据等。

    5. 负债和股东权益

    • 资产:钱在哪里
    • 负债:钱从哪里来

    负债表一般按照还钱的紧急程度排序

    • 流动负债(偿还期在一年以内的负债)
    • 非流动负债(偿还期超过一年的负债)

    5.1 三项债务

    • 应付账款:保持稳定就好
    • 其它应付款
    • 预收账款(预收账款指标越高,企业将来的盈利能力和盈利质量也就越好)

    5.2 非流动负债

    • 应付债券
    • 长期应付款:通常与融资租赁有关

    5.3 配比原则

    原则一:收入与成本配比

    原则二:行业与企业财务特征配比

    原则三:肉孜方式与投资项目要配比(长债短投有巨大风险)

    5.4 表外债务

    • 刻意隐藏的债务
    • 债务担保:为其它单位提供债务担保,需要付连带履约责任
    • 突发的诉讼引起的债务
    • 创新的融资方式

    5.5 股东权益

    有三种叫法:

    • 所有者权益(有限责任公司)
    • 股东权益(股份有限公司)
    • 净资产

    股东权益的四种类别:

    • 股本:视角到位的注册资本
    • 资本公积:实际投入比注册资本多出来的部分、股本溢价、资产重估、接受捐赠等各种”不劳而获的钱“
    • 盈余公积:法律规定公司必须留存至少10%的净利润作为盈余公积
    • 未分配利润:扣除盈余公积、已经分配掉的利润后,生下来的企业不打算分配的利润

    5.6 利润分配

    先后顺序:

    • 弥补之前年度的亏损
    • 按照年税后利润的10%计提法定盈余公积
    • 有股东自行决定是否提取以及提取多少任意盈余公积
    • 剩下的是未分配利润,由股东决定是否分红

    高转送:

    • 转:紫萼不能公积转增股本
    • 送:盈余公积或未分配利润送红股,即转成股本
    • 只是股东利益的内部结构调整,对公司的生产经营没有实际影响
    • 作用:降低股价绝对值,吸引更多投资者,提高股票流动性

    6 利润表

    企业是否赚钱,在哪里赚钱

    利润表的排序总体像一个漏斗,收入扣除所有成本和费用后,就得到了最终的净利润

    6.1 营业收入到营业利润

    • 营业收入:是企业获得利润和利润增长的核心动能
    • 营业成本:销售或提供服务的直接成本(原材料、能源消耗等)
    • 毛利润:营业收入-营业成本
    • 毛利率:毛利润/营业收入
    • 除非周转的很快,一般来说,毛利率比营业收入更重要(抵抗外部竞争者的缓冲空间越大)
    • 躲开毛利率低的企业,能大大降低投资失败的概率

    三类费用:

    • 营业费用:卖掉产品和服务重直接发生(广告、促销、保险、运动、销售提成等)
    • 管理费用:组织和管理中发生(工资福利、工会福利、行政开始、计提准备金等)
    • 财务费用(自由资金利息收入、债务利息、金融业务手续费等)

    “沙漠之花”

    • 低成本
    • 低费用
    • 低负债

    费用控制:

    • 总费用率=(营业费用+管理费用+财务费用)/ 毛利润
    • 费用率<30% 较为优秀, >70% 不建议参与

    资产减值:

    • 因资产的账面价值高于其可回收的金额而造成的损失

    6.2 营业利润到净利润

    • 营业外收入
    • 营业外支出
    • 补贴收入
    • 会对损益

    净利润 ≠ 赚到钱,利润表是权责发生制,需要结合收付实现制的现金流量表来一起看。

    7. 现金流量表

    • 筹资:从哪里搞钱
    • 投资:怎么用这笔钱
    • 经营:每天做什么事

    相对应的,企业由下面三种现金流:

    • 经营现金流:干活的钱
    • 投资现金流:躺赢的钱
    • 筹资现金流:借来的钱

    标注每一个模块都有流入和流出,我们需要关注每个模块净额

    经营、投资、筹资
    正、正、正什么都好,为什么还要借钱呢?不建议投资
    正、负、负主营业务良好。企业花钱多(投资或扩张)。企业还在还债,给股东分红
    正、正、负主营业务良好。企业投资活着的了回报,或不再扩张。企业还在还债或给股东分红
    正、负、正主营业务良好。企业花钱多(投资或扩张)。企业对外借出钱
    负、不建议投资
    负、不建议投资
    负、不建议投资
    负、不建议投资

    8 其它关键指标

    利息保障倍数

    ROE,净资产收益率:衡量资产运作效率

    总资产周转率:周转率越高,企业的进资产收益率就越高,即企业的管理效率越高。

    杜邦分析法,拆解ROE构成

  • 柏克夏三戒:《段永平投资逻辑》书摘

    不做空,不margin,不做不懂的东西。什么时候明白都不晚,不过真正明白恐怕都是在付出大代价之后。

    (更多…)
  • 《穷查理宝典》笔记一:书中自有黄金屋

    摘自《穷查理宝典》中文序:书中自有黄金屋(李录)。

    查理思考问题总是从逆向开始:如果要明白人生如何得到幸福,查理受限是研究人生如何才能变得痛苦;要研究企业如何做强做大,查理首先研究企业是如何衰败的;大部分人更关心如何在股市投资上成功,查理最关心的是为什么在股市投资上大部分人都失败了。

    查理用一个词来总结他的成功,查理说是“理性”。

    查理这种思维方式的基础是基于对知识的诚实。这个世界复杂多变,人类的认知永远存在着限制,所以必须要使用所有的工具,同时注重收集各种新的可以证否的证据,并随时修正,即所谓的“知之为知之,不知为不知”。

    两分钟效应,查理比世界上任何人更能在短时间内把一个复杂商业的本质说清楚。

    查理兴趣广泛,对科学和软科学几乎所有领域都有清冽的兴趣和广泛的研究,通过融汇贯通,形成了原创性的、独特的芒格思想体系。

    一个人在一生中可以真正得到的真见卓识仍然非常非常有限,所以正确的决策必须局限在自己的“能力圈”以内。一种不能够界定其边界的能力当然不能称之为真正的能力。

    查理喜欢亲力亲为,查理天生精力充沛。

    “我的剑留给能够挥舞它的人。”

    查理最受不了的就是因为拥有了钱财而失去与世界的联系,把自己隔绝在一个单独,占地一层的巨型办公室里,建模要层层通报,过五关斩六将,谁都不能轻易接触到,这样就与现实生活脱节了。

    “我手里只要有一本书,就不会觉得浪费时间。”

    查理严于律己,宽厚待人。

    查理一旦确定了做一件事,他可以去做一辈子。

    查理一生研究人类失败的原因,所以对人性的弱点有着深刻的理解。

    一个人的成功并不是偶然的,时机固然重要,但人的内在品质更重要。

    查理“商才士魂”, 查理更接近中国传统士大夫,提升自我修养,自我超越,学有所用,实现自我价值。

    查理富有,却过苦行僧般的生活。取得事业与财富的巨大成功后,查理致力于慈善事业,造福天下人。

    查理士一个完全凭借智慧去的成功的人。

  • 美股港股A股涨跌的简单统计

    拉取了美股港股和A股历史上所有的股票日k数据,统计美股各个股票上涨和下帖的天数和。

    上涨天数和下跌天数基本相等,基本都是五五开。

    对于美股来说,统计股票12232支, 上涨:12805720, 下跌:12398170, 比例基本为, 0.492:0.508

    对于A股来说,统计股票5669支,上涨:8190400 下跌:8096007

    对于港股来说,统计股票3109支,上涨:5270908 下跌:5657368

  • Sky Optimization的GuidedFilterUpsample

    Guided Filter from SkyOptimization https://github.com/google/sky-optimization

    import numpy as np
    import cv2
    
    class GuidedFilter:
        """
        Guided Filter from SkyOptimization https://github.com/google/sky-optimization
        """
        def __init__(self,
                     compute_confidence=True):
            self.compute_confidence = compute_confidence
    
        def inference(self,
                      reference,
                      source,
                      kernel_size,
                      confidence=None,
                      eps_luma=1e-2,
                      eps_chroma=1e-2,
                      clip_output=True):
            assert reference.shape[2] == 3
    
            if np.any(np.array(source.shape) < np.array(reference.shape[:2])):
                source = self.resize(source, reference.shape[:2])
            if confidence is None:
                confidence = self.probability_to_confidence(source)
            assert confidence.shape == source.shape
    
            reference_small = self.weighted_downsample(reference, confidence, kernel_size)
            small_shape = reference_small.shape[:2]
            source_small = self.weighted_downsample(source, confidence, target_size=small_shape)
    
            outer_reference = self.outer_product_images(reference, reference)
            outer_reference = self.weighted_downsample(outer_reference, confidence, target_size=small_shape)
            covar = outer_reference - self.outer_product_images(reference_small, reference_small)
            var = self.weighted_downsample(
                reference * source[..., np.newaxis], confidence, target_size=small_shape
            )
            residual_small = var - reference_small * source_small[..., np.newaxis]
            covar[..., 0] += eps_luma ** 2
            covar[..., [3, 5]] += eps_chroma ** 2
    
            affine = self.solve_image_ldl3(covar, residual_small)
            residual = source_small - (affine * reference_small).sum(axis=2)
            affine = self.smooth_upsample(affine, reference.shape[:2])
            residual = self.smooth_upsample(residual, reference.shape[:2])
            output = (affine * reference).sum(axis=2) + residual
            if clip_output:
                output = output.clip(0, 1)
            return output
    
        def bias(self, x, b=0.8):
            denom = ((1 / b) - 2) * (1 - x) + 1
            return x / denom
    
        def probability_to_confidence(self, probabilty, low_thresh=0.3, high_thresh=0.5):
            eps = 0.01
            low = probabilty < low_thresh
            high = probabilty > high_thresh
            confidence_low = self.bias((low_thresh - probabilty[low]) / low_thresh)
            confidence_high = self.bias((probabilty[high] - high_thresh) / (1 - high_thresh))
            confidence = np.zeros_like(probabilty)
            confidence[low] = confidence_low
            confidence[high] = confidence_high
            confidence = np.maximum(eps, confidence)
            return confidence
    
        def downsample2_antialiased(self, X):
            kernel = np.array([1, 3, 3, 1]) / 8
            dst = cv2.sepFilter2D(X, -1, kernel, kernel, anchor=(1, 1), borderType=cv2.BORDER_REPLICATE)
            return dst[::2, ::2]
    
        def resize_helper(self, X, shape):
            X = X.squeeze()
            while np.all(np.array(X.shape[:2]) >= np.array(shape) * 2):
                X = self.downsample2_antialiased(X)
            return cv2.resize(X, dsize=tuple(shape[1::-1]), interpolation=cv2.INTER_LINEAR)
    
        def resize(self, X, shape):
            if X.ndim == 2 or X.shape[2] <= 4:
                return self.resize_helper(X, shape)
            # opencv doesn't work on more than 4 channels
            X1 = self.resize_helper(X[..., :3], shape)
            X2 = self.resize_helper(X[..., 3:], shape)
            return np.concatenate([X1, X2], axis=2)
    
        def outer_product_images(self, X, Y):
            assert X.shape[-1] == 3 and Y.shape[-1] == 3
            X_flat = X[..., :, np.newaxis]
            Y_flat = Y[..., np.newaxis, :]
    
            outer = np.matmul(X_flat, Y_flat)
            ind = np.triu_indices(3)
            outer = outer[..., ind[0], ind[1]]
            return outer.reshape(X.shape[:-1] + (6,))
    
        def smooth_upsample(self, X, size, num_steps=None):
            if num_steps is None:
                log4ratio = np.max(0.5 * np.log2(np.array(size) / X.shape[:2]))
                num_steps = np.maximum(1, log4ratio.round().astype(np.int))
            ratio = np.array(size) / X.shape[:2]
            ratio_per_step = np.array(X.shape[:2]) * ratio / num_steps
            for step in np.arange(1, num_steps + 1):
                target_shape_for_step = np.round(step * ratio_per_step).astype(np.int)
                X = self.resize(X, target_shape_for_step)
            return X
    
        def solve_image_ldl3(self, A, b):
            A11, A12, A13, A22, A23, A33 = np.split(A, A.shape[-1], axis=-1)
            b1, b2, b3 = np.split(b, b.shape[-1], axis=-1)
            d1 = A11
            L_12 = A12 / d1
            d2 = A22 - L_12 * A12
            L_13 = A13 / d1
            L_23 = (A23 - L_13 * A12) / d2
            d3 = A33 - L_13 * A13 - L_23 * L_23 * d2
            y1 = b1
            y2 = b2 - L_12 * y1
            y3 = b3 - L_13 * y1 - L_23 * y2
            x3 = y3 / d3
            x2 = y2 / d2 - L_23 * x3
            x1 = y1 / d1 - L_12 * x2 - L_13 * x3
            return np.stack([x1, x2, x3], axis=-1).squeeze()
    
        def weighted_downsample(self, X, confidence, scale=None, target_size=None):
            if target_size is None:
                target_size = (np.array(X.shape[:2]) / scale).round().astype(np.int)
            if X.shape[1] > confidence.shape[1]:
                X = self.resize(X, confidence.shape)
            if X.ndim == 3:
                confidence = confidence[..., np.newaxis]
            numerator = self.resize(X * confidence, target_size)
            denom = self.resize(confidence, target_size)
            if X.ndim == 3:
                denom = denom[..., np.newaxis]
            return numerator / denom
    

    Simple Version

    import numpy as np
    import cv2
    
    class SimplifiedGuidedFilter:
        """
        Guided Filter from SkyOptimization https://github.com/google/sky-optimization
        Simplify guided filter:
        1. change smooth upsample to bilinear upsample
        2. not add eps to covariance
        """
        def __init__(self,
                     compute_confidence=True):
            self.compute_confidence = compute_confidence
    
        def inference(self,
                      reference,
                      source,
                      kernel_size,
                      confidence=None,
                      eps_luma=1e-2,
                      eps_chroma=1e-2,
                      clip_output=True):
            assert reference.shape[2] == 3
    
            if np.any(np.array(source.shape) < np.array(reference.shape[:2])):
                source = self.resize(source, reference.shape[:2])
            if confidence is None:
                confidence = self.probability_to_confidence(source)
            assert confidence.shape == source.shape
    
            # 1. weighted downsample reference and source
            reference_small = self.weighted_downsample(reference, confidence, kernel_size) # RGB image
            small_shape = reference_small.shape[:2]
            source_small = self.weighted_downsample(source, confidence, target_size=small_shape) # mask
    
            # 2. compute covariance and variance, weighted downsample
            outer_reference = self.outer_product_images(reference, reference)
            outer_reference = self.weighted_downsample(outer_reference, confidence, target_size=small_shape)
            covar = outer_reference - self.outer_product_images(reference_small, reference_small)
    
            var = self.weighted_downsample(
                reference * source[..., np.newaxis], confidence, target_size=small_shape
            )
            residual_small = var - reference_small * source_small[..., np.newaxis]
            covar[..., 0] += eps_luma ** 2
            covar[..., [3, 5]] += eps_chroma ** 2
    
            # 3. LDL decomposition
            affine = self.solve_image_ldl3(covar, residual_small)
    
            residual = source_small - (affine * reference_small).sum(axis=2)
    
            # 4. upsample
            affine = self.bilinear_upsample(affine, (reference.shape[1], reference.shape[0]))
            residual = self.bilinear_upsample(residual, (reference.shape[1], reference.shape[0]))
    
            output = (affine * reference).sum(axis=2) + residual
            if clip_output:
                output = output.clip(0, 1)
            return output
    
        def bias(self, x, b=0.8):
            denom = ((1 / b) - 2) * (1 - x) + 1
            return x / denom
    
        def probability_to_confidence(self, probabilty, low_thresh=0.3, high_thresh=0.5):
            eps = 0.01
            low = probabilty < low_thresh
            high = probabilty > high_thresh
            confidence_low = self.bias((low_thresh - probabilty[low]) / low_thresh)
            confidence_high = self.bias((probabilty[high] - high_thresh) / (1 - high_thresh))
            confidence = np.zeros_like(probabilty)
            confidence[low] = confidence_low
            confidence[high] = confidence_high
            confidence = np.maximum(eps, confidence)
            return confidence
    
        def downsample2_antialiased(self, X):
            kernel = np.array([1, 3, 3, 1]) / 8
            dst = cv2.sepFilter2D(X, -1, kernel, kernel, anchor=(1, 1), borderType=cv2.BORDER_REPLICATE)
            return dst[::2, ::2]
    
        def resize_helper(self, X, shape):
            X = X.squeeze()
            while np.all(np.array(X.shape[:2]) >= np.array(shape) * 2):
                X = self.downsample2_antialiased(X)
            return cv2.resize(X, dsize=tuple(shape[1::-1]), interpolation=cv2.INTER_LINEAR)
    
        def resize(self, X, shape):
            if X.ndim == 2 or X.shape[2] <= 4:
                return self.resize_helper(X, shape)
            # opencv doesn't work on more than 4 channels
            X1 = self.resize_helper(X[..., :3], shape)
            X2 = self.resize_helper(X[..., 3:], shape)
            return np.concatenate([X1, X2], axis=2)
    
        def outer_product_images(self, X, Y):
            assert X.shape[-1] == 3 and Y.shape[-1] == 3
            X_flat = X[..., :, np.newaxis]
            Y_flat = Y[..., np.newaxis, :]
    
            outer = np.matmul(X_flat, Y_flat)
            ind = np.triu_indices(3)
            outer = outer[..., ind[0], ind[1]]
            return outer.reshape(X.shape[:-1] + (6,))
    
        def bilinear_upsample(self, X, size):
            X = cv2.resize(X, size, interpolation=cv2.INTER_LINEAR)
            return X
    
        def solve_image_ldl3(self, A, b):
            A11, A12, A13, A22, A23, A33 = np.split(A, A.shape[-1], axis=-1)
            b1, b2, b3 = np.split(b, b.shape[-1], axis=-1)
            d1 = A11
            L_12 = A12 / d1
            d2 = A22 - L_12 * A12
            L_13 = A13 / d1
            L_23 = (A23 - L_13 * A12) / d2
            d3 = A33 - L_13 * A13 - L_23 * L_23 * d2
            y1 = b1
            y2 = b2 - L_12 * y1
            y3 = b3 - L_13 * y1 - L_23 * y2
            x3 = y3 / d3
            x2 = y2 / d2 - L_23 * x3
            x1 = y1 / d1 - L_12 * x2 - L_13 * x3
            return np.stack([x1, x2, x3], axis=-1).squeeze()
    
        def weighted_downsample(self, X, confidence, scale=None, target_size=None):
            if target_size is None:
                target_size = (np.array(X.shape[:2]) / scale).round().astype(np.int)
            if X.shape[1] > confidence.shape[1]:
                X = self.resize(X, confidence.shape)
            if X.ndim == 3:
                confidence = confidence[..., np.newaxis]
            numerator = self.resize(X * confidence, target_size)
            denom = self.resize(confidence, target_size)
            if X.ndim == 3:
                denom = denom[..., np.newaxis]
            return numerator / denom
    
  • 波动率 Volatility

    波动率被用来衡量标的波动幅度,同时也影响衍生品的定价。这里主要介绍期权的波动率。

    参考资料:

    一、IV和HV

    波动率分为两种:历史波动率HV和隐含波动率IV

    • 历史波动率HV,反映历史股价的波动程度
    • 隐含波动率IV,反映期权市场对未来波动率的预期

    通常情况下:

    • IV与HV走势相关
    • IV比HV高
    • IV的变动比HV更大

    二、隐含波动率 IV

    隐含波动率(IV)表示市场投资者对未来股价波动的预期,它实际上是一个未知量。

    我们通过某种期权定价模型,把股价、期权金、利率、到期时间等因素代入定价公式,反推出隐含波动率。

    它一定程度上反映出期权的估值水平,在其他条件不变的情况下:

    ● 当隐含波动率处于偏高水平时,期权价格越贵。

    ● 当隐含波动率处于偏低水平时,期权价格越便宜。

    因此,市场上有一个普遍的共识,对于投资者而言,在不考虑方向(Delta中性)的前提下:

    在隐含波动率低时,应考虑买入(Buy)期权,在隐含波动率高时,应考虑卖出(Sell)期权。

    然而,仅凭隐含波动率(IV)数值本身并不能完全揭示标的资产未来波动的真实面貌,因为不同标的的IV标准各不相同。

    ● 比如,对于交易活跃但平时价格波动不大的股票,30%的IV可能已经算是高波动了。

    ● 而对于交易量小但平时价格波动剧烈的股票,80%的IV可能仍属于低波动水平。

    三、历史波动率 HV

    HV反映的是过去30天内,标的资产的实际波动情况,用于衡量标的资产偏离其平均价格的程度。

    比如我们选取交易日内价格变化标准差为2.54%,每年有252个交易日,我们把2.54%修正为年标准差就等于HV:

    HV=2.5% * sqrt(252)=40.3%

    • 隐含波动率>历史波动率:通常意味着市场预期该标的资产在未来会大于历史波动
    • 隐含波动率<历史波动率:通常意味着市场预期该标的资产在未来会小于历史波动

    四、波动率的含义

    如果HV时40%, 标的价格时158USD,则有68%的几率,未来一年内股价落在95USD到222USD之间(40%波动)。

    五、IV Rank

    Total IV Rank 是一个相对的指标,就像是给标的资产的Total IV打个分数,看它跟过去一年的波动率相比,算高分还是低分。

    IV Rank的数值范围是在0到100之间波动。

    如果IV Rank特别高,比如超过80,就好像是说“哇,这波动挺猛的!”;如果低于20,那就是“嘿,这波动还挺温和的”。

    Total IV Rank的计算方法是:

    以过去一年内,该标的资产的最高和最低IV值为标准,计算现在IV的相对位置。

    IV Rank = (当前IV – 1年内最低IV) / (1年内最高IV – 1年内最低IV)*100

    IV Rank为0时表示IV处于近1年内较低范围,为100时,表示当前IV处于近1年内较高范围。

    六、IV Percentile

    Total IV Percentile也是一个相对的指标,这个指标告诉我们,过去一年内,有多少天的隐含波动率比现在低。

    IV Percentile的计算方法是:

    用过去一年内,隐含波动率低于或等于当前隐含波动率的天数,除以总的交易天数。

    IV Percentile =1年内低于当前IV的天数/ 交易天数

    IV Percentile为0%时,表示过去1年内有0%的交易日低于当前IV

    IV Percentile为100%时,表示过去1年内有100%的交易日低于当前IV

    七、波动率做多和做空

    在之前我们提到过,期权有四个交易方向,Buy Call, Buy Put, Sell Call, Sell Put, 我们将其进行组合可以实现波动率的做多和做空,详细的方式后面专门写一篇blog,这里介绍一种典型的实现方式。

    一种典型的方式是同时认购或者认沽价外期权来实现,还可以采用基于期权/远期底层资产的其它实现方式。

    八、IV Crush

    一般是指特定期权波动率突然上升或下降的现象。

    关于IV Crush的详细介绍: https://www.tastylive.com/concepts-strategies/iv-crush

    财报日前不确定性强,IV攀升,财报公布后确定性强,IV迅速下降。

    不确定性越高的期权价格越贵,越不利于卖方。因此我们在赌财报时可以卖出一个认购和认沽组合,来赚取期权高溢价的权利金,选择到期日近的期权在财报发布后平仓或持有斗气,可以尽量减少因价格波动承担的风险。

    九、波动率倾斜/波动率微笑

    波动率倾斜的原因:按照BS定价模型,相同到期日的卡u按,在不同行权价下波动率应该呈一条平直的水平线。但真实市场的情况是,交易者会过于乐观,买入价外认购期权导致波动率上升,或者过于悲观,买入价外认沽期权导致波动率上升,于是形成中间低两边高的波动率分布线。

    如果波动率向左倾斜,则可能是由于投资者买入了价外认沽期权对下跌进行保护,此时卖出价外认沽期权可以获得更高的权利金。